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Mesoscale Discussion 1618
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1618
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0106 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051806Z - 052000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SEVERE WIND/HAIL POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE/DEVELOP
   GENERALLY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR THROUGH
   EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...A QUASI-LINEAR CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...WITH 40-50 KT
   REAR-INFLOW AS PER WSR-88D VWP DATA FROM TULSA OK/SPRINGFIELD
   MO...CONTINUES TO MAKE A STEADY EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD PROGRESSION
   ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL MO/NORTHWEST AR AS OF 1245PM/1745Z. WHILE THE
   NORTHERN PORTION OF THIS CONVECTIVE LINE ACROSS SOUTHERN MO IS
   INTERCEPTING A STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS...LINE-PRECEDING
   THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEGUN TO RECENTLY INCREASE ACROSS AR NEAR/SOUTH
   OF A WEST/EAST-ORIENTED EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY. THE BOUNDARY LAYER AS
   FAR NORTH AS PARTS OF NORTH-CENTRAL/NORTHEAST AR HAS BECOME WEAKLY
   CAPPED/MODERATELY UNSTABLE...WITH AS MUCH AS 1500-2500 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE. ADDITIONAL HEATING/STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   ALLOW FOR ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT/CELL MERGERS AND THE
   POSSIBILITY OF AN INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE LINE. ACCORDINGLY...AT
   LEAST ISOLATED BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS/SOME SEVERE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...AND CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   ..GUYER/HART.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...LZK...

   LAT...LON   34829399 35739275 36319203 36198987 35099024 34159119
               34349342 34829399 

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Page last modified: August 05, 2015
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