Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1619
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1619 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF FAR NERN NV...FAR NRN UT...ERN/CNTRL
   ID...FAR SWRN MT...AND NWRN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 051840Z - 052045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH A RESULTANT INCREASE IN THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE
   OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...THE LATEST MOISTURE-CHANNEL IMAGERY DEPICTS A SHARP
   IMPULSE ALOFT PROGRESSING E/NEWD ACROSS NRN NV LATE THIS
   MORNING/EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. AS IT TRANSLATES FARTHER
   NE...INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT OVER THE MCD AREA WILL MANIFEST
   IN AN UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND
   12Z HI-RES GUIDANCE AND RECENT ESRL-HRRR RUNS SUPPORT THIS SCENARIO.

   WHILE A LEADING IMPULSE AND RESULTANT CLOUD COVER HAVE LIMITED
   DESTABILIZATION SOME...ENOUGH CLEARING HAS OCCURRED SUCH THAT
   DIURNAL HEATING IS YIELDING MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. SUFFICIENT
   MOISTURE FOR THE REGION /E.G. PWATS UPWARDS OF 1 INCH AND DEW POINTS
   IN THE LOWER 50S/ SHOULD SUSTAIN STRONGER UPDRAFTS...AND IN
   COMBINATION WITH A WELL-MIXED PBL...FAVOR AT LEAST A FEW STRONG WIND
   GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING THE PRESENCE OF 500-MB
   FLOW AROUND 40 KTS. MOREOVER...ADEQUATE BUOYANCY WITHIN THE
   HAIL-GROWTH ZONE /PER FCST SOUNDINGS/ SUGGESTS THAT
   ORGANIZED/ROTATING UPDRAFTS WILL BE CAPABLE OF AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL...WITH SOME CELLS POSSIBLY BEING QUITE EFFICIENT IN THE
   QUANTITY OF HAILSTONES PRODUCED. INDEED...SUCH UPDRAFT ORGANIZATION
   IS LIKELY CONSIDERING EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 35-40 KTS. A TORNADO
   MAY BE POSSIBLE AS WELL...AS N/NELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW YIELDS EFFECTIVE
   SRH AROUND 100 M2/S2 IN SPOTS. THEREFORE...WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/05/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BYZ...RIW...TFX...SLC...PIH...MSO...BOI...LKN...

   LAT...LON   41591552 41861596 42191623 43581498 45031272 45091234
               45231069 45080984 44120953 42621107 41721230 41591552 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 05, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities