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Mesoscale Discussion 1619
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1619
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0843 PM CDT MON AUG 25 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN CO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477...

   VALID 260143Z - 260315Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 477
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD ACROSS ERN CO WILL LIKELY PERSIST
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING
   BUT SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...THE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM OF THE LINE OF TSTMS MOVING EWD
   THROUGH ERN CO REMAINS UNSTABLE WITH SPC MESOANALYSIS ESTIMATING
   MLCAPE AROUND 1000 J PER KG. AS DAYTIME HEATING WANES...CINH WILL
   INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA BUT RECENT TSTM ACTIVITY IN NW KS INDICATES
   CINH REMAINS LOW. THIS DOWNSTREAM INSTABILITY COUPLED WITH AN
   INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET AND POTENTIAL INTERACTION WITH NWD
   PROGRESSING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM TSTMS IN CNTRL KS WILL HELP
   MAINTAIN THE LINE AS IT CONTINUES EWD IN FAR SWRN NEB AND NW KS.
   SOME ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS REMAIN POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER.. 08/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   40180513 40600443 40780182 40530103 38250106 37690291
               37790512 39290540 40180513 

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Page last modified: August 26, 2014
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