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Mesoscale Discussion 1621
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN INDIANA...NORTHWEST OHIO...SOUTHERN LOWER
   MICHIGAN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261749Z - 262015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON MAY
   PRODUCE LOCALIZED DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL.
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE
   IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR LOOPS INDICATE LONGER-LIVED MULTICELL
   CLUSTERS BECOMING LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A BROKEN SQUALL LINE FROM
   SWRN LOWER MI TO E-CNTRL IL. THIS IS OCCURRING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY WEAK SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT. VWPS ACROSS THE
   REGION SAMPLE ONLY MODEST MID-LEVEL FLOW -- E.G. 15-25 KT FROM 4 TO
   6 KM AGL...STRONGEST IN LOWER MI. HOWEVER...THE AIR MASS CONTINUES
   TO DESTABILIZE IN ADVANCE OF THE ONGOING ACTIVITY OWING TO DIURNAL
   HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER
   60S TO AROUND 70F -- YIELDING MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1000-2000 J/KG.
   THIS SHOULD ENCOURAGE FORWARD PROPAGATION OF THE ONGOING STORMS
   EWD...AIDED BY 15-20 KT OF 1-3-KM-AGL FLOW FAVORING EWD SPREAD OF
   COLD POOLS. ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THE MOST
   INTENSE STORMS. HOWEVER...WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP SHEAR...A MORE
   ORGANIZED...FASTER-MOVING SYSTEM WITH A GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM
   RISK IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED. HOWEVER...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...CLE...DTX...IWX...GRR...IND...LOT...

   LAT...LON   40378738 41898600 43378495 43368347 42798307 41618378
               40478539 40378738 

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Page last modified: August 26, 2014
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