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Mesoscale Discussion 1621
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1621
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0752 PM CDT WED AUG 05 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN OK INTO FAR WRN AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 060052Z - 060315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO DEVELOP OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS WITH A THREAT OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND.

   DISCUSSION...AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO DRIFT SWWD ACROSS NRN
   INTO CNTRL OK...AND EXTENDING EWD ACROSS CNTRL AR THIS EVENING. A
   VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR MASS IS PRESENT...WITH 00Z OUN SOUNDING
   DEPICTING AROUND 3000 J/KG 100 MB MLCAPE.

   ALTHOUGH THE LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY SUPPORTIVE
   OF ANY ORGANIZED SEVERE STORM THREAT...WEAK CONVERGENCE NEAR THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AND A NEWD FLUX OF HIGHER THETA-E AIR MAY BE ENOUGH
   FOR CONTINUED STORM FORMATION. AS OF 01Z...ISOLATED CELLS WERE
   ALREADY DEVELOPING NEAR GUTHRIE OK. IF CAPPING DOES NOT INCREASE TOO
   RAPIDLY...SOME OF THESE CELLS COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE.
   FURTHER...IF STORM COVERAGE INCREASES SUBSTANTIALLY...THEN A WATCH
   COULD BE CONSIDERED.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LZK...SHV...TSA...OUN...

   LAT...LON   34669659 34989748 35629803 36059781 36309697 35919578
               35409462 35139433 34619438 34349476 34309528 34669659 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2015
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