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Mesoscale Discussion 1622
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN/NRN AZ...FAR SRN UT...FAR SRN NV

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261825Z - 262100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP BY EARLY
   AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A BAND OF ASCENT EDGING EWD
   ACROSS THE REGION...IN ADVANCE OF A MID-LEVEL CYCLONE CROSSING SRN
   NV AND ATTENDANT TROUGH EXTENDING SSWWD INTO SRN CA. AREAS OF
   INSOLATION ON THE FRINGES OF MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDS ACCOMPANYING THIS
   BAND OF ASCENT WILL DIURNALLY BOLSTER BAROCLINICITY ALONG WITH
   OROGRAPHIC ASCENT AND INSTABILITY...AMIDST INCREASING DCVA. THESE
   FACTORS WILL CONTINUE TO FOSTER AN UPTICK IN CONVECTION INTO THE
   AFTERNOON...AS HAS ALREADY BEEN EVIDENT IN RECENT 9-KM CAPPI DATA.
   SFC OBSERVATIONS AND THE 12Z PHOENIX RAOB SUGGEST AMPLE LOWER/MIDDLE
   TROPOSPHERIC MOISTURE IN PLACE. POLEWARD FLUXES OF MOISTURE FROM THE
   GULF OF CALIFORNIA ARE SUPPORTING SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE 50S AND 
   60S -- HIGHEST VALUES OVER THE LOWER CO RIVER VALLEY. WHEN COUPLED
   WITH MODESTLY STEEP LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...MLCAPE ON THE ORDER
   OF 1000-2000 J/KG EXISTS ACROSS THE REGION.

   FSX AND ESX VWPS SAMPLE 30-40-KT MID-LEVEL SWLYS/WSWLYS ASSOCIATED
   WITH ENHANCED FLOW ALOFT RELATED TO THE TROUGH. THIS WILL YIELD
   SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION...INCLUDING
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND POSSIBLY TRANSIENT/BRIEF SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS. MODEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW...ALONG WITH THE LACK OF EVEN STEEPER
   LAPSE RATES...MAY PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM
   EVOLVING. NEVERTHELESS...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FGZ...SLC...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   33641432 34401462 36511450 37381362 37301204 36621121
               35021116 33731256 33501368 33641432 

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Page last modified: August 26, 2014
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