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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0913 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...
VALID 200213Z - 200315Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604
CONTINUES.
BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND THE
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF THE WW LIKELY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
AT 03Z.
VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. STORM CLUSTER NOW
NEAR/WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF DALHART LIKELY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING
AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU HIGH CENTER.
A SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL STILL APPEARS TO
ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY. AND...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH
STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
AREA THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME. GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES NEAR/NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF
CLOVIS. BUT...IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
JET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST...AND DAMAGING WIND
POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LIMITED.
..KERR.. 07/20/2009
ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
LAT...LON 33980557 34750453 35380386 36180334 36600284 35870178
34930185 34360232 33680318 33170481 33440551 33980557
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