MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0913 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF ERN NM AND THE TX PNHDL
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604...
   
   VALID 200213Z - 200315Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 604
   CONTINUES.
   
   BUT...THE SEVERE THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING...AND THE
   REMAINING VALID PORTION OF THE WW LIKELY WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE
   AT 03Z.
   
   VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LINGERS IN THE VICINITY OF THE LEE
   SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS.  STORM CLUSTER NOW
   NEAR/WEST THROUGH SOUTHWEST OF DALHART LIKELY IS BEING SUPPORTED BY
   MID/UPPER FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORT WAVE IMPULSE MIGRATING
   AROUND THE NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU HIGH CENTER. 
   A SUBSTANTIAL CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOL STILL APPEARS TO
   ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY.  AND...WEAK TO MODERATE INSTABILITY BENEATH
   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES IS PROBABLY SUFFICIENT TO MAINTAIN
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT SOUTHWARD NEAR THE TEXAS/NEW MEXICO BORDER
   AREA THROUGH THE 03-05Z TIME FRAME.  GUSTY WINDS MAY ACCOMPANY THE
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY AS IT ADVANCES NEAR/NORTHEAST THROUGH EAST OF
   CLOVIS.  BUT...IN THE ABSENCE OF A STRONGER SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET...DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS RATHER MODEST...AND DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL APPEARS FAIRLY LIMITED.
   
   ..KERR.. 07/20/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...LUB...AMA...MAF...ABQ...
   
   LAT...LON   33980557 34750453 35380386 36180334 36600284 35870178
               34930185 34360232 33680318 33170481 33440551 33980557