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Mesoscale Discussion 1622
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1622
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0140 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL GA...WRN/CNTRL SC...AND FAR
   SRN NC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061840Z - 062045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CLUSTERS OF STRONG/MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   SLOWLY ORGANIZE THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH AN INCREASING THREAT
   FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS. CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR
   POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AREAS OF CONVECTION HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY UNORGANIZED SO
   FAR THIS AFTERNOON...AS DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE SLOWLY
   BLOSSOMED IN MOIST/CONFLUENT SFC FLOW ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES. HOWEVER...AS A RELATIVELY SHARP IMPULSE /EVIDENT
   OVER THE TN AND OH VALLEYS IN WV IMAGERY/ PROGRESSES
   EWD...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD AID THUNDERSTORM ORGANIZATION OVER
   PORTIONS OF NRN/CNTRL GA. INDEED...RECENT TRENDS ON THE REGIONAL
   WSR-88D MOSAIC SUGGEST SUCH ORGANIZATION MAY BE UNDERWAY. THESE
   CELLS SHOULD THEN SPREAD EWD INTO SC BY THE EVENING HOURS. 

   WHILE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE MEAGER...A WARM/MOIST ENVIRONMENT
   /CHARACTERIZED BY PWATS UPWARDS OF 2 INCHES AND WELL-MIXED LOW
   LEVELS/ WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A GROWING STRONG-WIND
   THREAT...PRIMARILY ASSOCIATED WITH WET MICROBURSTS. MOREOVER...AS
   HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT OVERTAKE THE REGION...A MODEST INCREASE IN
   MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL ENHANCE THE WIND THREAT VIA VERTICAL MOMENTUM
   TRANSFER IN DOWNDRAFTS. THE HAIL THREAT IS QUITE MARGINAL
   THOUGH...AS FAIRLY MODEST UPDRAFT ACCELERATION AND A MOIST
   TROPOSPHERIC COLUMN SHOULD CREATE A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT FOR
   LARGE-HAIL GROWTH/MAINTENANCE. NONETHELESS...TRENDS REGARDING
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ARE BEING MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   ..PICCA/HART.. 08/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CAE...GSP...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32758494 34068474 34678366 35268232 35318092 35098044
               34348044 33298172 32428302 32288394 32208459 32308479
               32758494 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2015
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