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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1102 PM CDT SUN JUL 19 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL DAKOTAS
CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605...
VALID 200402Z - 200500Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 605
CONTINUES.
REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW WILL PROBABLY BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AS
SCHEDULED AT 06Z.
MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC THERMAL RIDGE
EXTENDING NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE PLATEAU/ROCKIES REGION WILL NOT
BREAK DOWN UNTIL LATER TONIGHT. THE WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS FEATURE...COUPLED WITH DIURNAL COOLING NOW
UNDERWAY ACROSS THE HIGHER PLAINS...APPEAR TO BE SUPPRESSING ONGOING
STORMS WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION REGIME AHEAD OF A PRE-FRONTAL
SURFACE TROUGH. STRONG GUSTY WINDS MAY STILL ACCOMPANY A WEAKENING
STORM CLUSTER BETWEEN PHILIP AND PIERRE SD THROUGH 05-06Z. BUT...IN
GENERAL...THE SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING.
..KERR.. 07/20/2009
ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...UNR...
LAT...LON 44080192 44900187 46010142 47060136 47710083 47539977
46209949 44889955 44269987 43660043 43620113 43680171
44080192
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