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Mesoscale Discussion 1623
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0209 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL IL...CNTRL INDIANA...W-CNTRL/SWRN OH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 261909Z - 262145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE WILL EXIST AN INCREASING RISK FOR SVR THUNDERSTORMS
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. WHILE WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY
   UNLIKELY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. IF A
   MORE ORGANIZED/LARGER-SCALE SVR RISK WERE TO EVOLVE...WW PROBABILITY
   WOULD INCREASE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER -- E.G.
   LOWER/MIDDLE 70S SFC DEWPOINTS -- OVER THE SRN FLANK OF A LOOSELY
   ORGANIZED MCS CROSSING NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER MI IS SUPPORTING
   MLCAPE AROUND 2000-4000 J/KG. RECENT MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTS
   THAT CONVECTIVE REGENERATION IS FAVORED SWD/SEWD INTO THIS VERY
   STRONG INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY INVOF A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
   ARCING FROM E OF FWA TO NEAR LAF. SFC OBSERVATIONS DO NOT INDICATE A
   LARGE-SCALE/STRONG COLD POOL SUPPORTING THE ONGOING ACTIVITY...WHICH
   CASTS UNCERTAINTY ON FUTURE TRENDS OF THE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL AMIDST
   WEAK SYNOPTIC ASCENT. FURTHERMORE...WITH AREA VWP DATA INDICATING
   AOB 15 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW/WEAK DEEP SHEAR...OVERALL CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION/SUSTENANCE COULD BE LIMITED. REGARDLESS...THE HIGH
   DEGREE OF BUOYANCY OFFERS SOME CONCERN FOR INTENSE
   UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND SVR HAIL.
   IF AMALGAMATING COLD POOLS WERE TO BREED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A
   LARGER-SCALE...ORGANIZED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM...THE RISK FOR
   GREATER-COVERAGE DMGG WIND GUSTS COULD INCREASE POTENTIALLY
   WARRANTING A SVR TSTM WATCH. CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ILN...IWX...IND...LOT...ILX...

   LAT...LON   39008650 39158849 39558919 40178902 40498696 40628478
               40168433 39368492 39008650 

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Page last modified: August 26, 2014
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