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Mesoscale Discussion 1623
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1623
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0151 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN SD...NERN NEB AND SWRN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 061851Z - 062045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THE
   REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON FROM SCNTRL SD INTO NCNTRL NEB AND
   SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE EWD TOWARD THE UPPER MS VALLEY. BOTH MULTICELL AND
   A FEW SUPERCELL MODES ARE LIKELY WITH DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL
   THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A
   POSSIBLE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COLD FRONT EXTENDS FROM A SFC
   LOW OVER CNTRL SD SWWD INTO NCNTRL NEB. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT
   EXTENDS EWD FROM THE LOW INTO NRN SD AND SERN ND. THE WARM SECTOR IS
   IN THE PROCESS OF RECOVERING FROM THE EFFECTS OF MORNING CLOUDS AND
   CONVECTION AS SFC TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE LOW 80S SUPPORTING
   MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2000 J/KG BASED ON LATEST OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS.
   VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS A BAND OF TOWERING CUMULUS CONTINUES TO
   EXPAND ALONG THE COLD FRONT OVER SCNTRL SD...AND A FEW SHOWERS AND
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF DEVELOPING WITHIN THIS BAND.
   DEEPER ASCENT ATTENDING A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER CNTRL SD
   HAS OVERTAKEN THE COLD FRONT AND WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS AS THE DOWNSTREAM BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
   THOUGH LOW-LEVEL WINDS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF VEERING TO SWLY...A
   MODEST /35-40 KT/ MID-LEVEL JET ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO 30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED
   STORMS INCLUDING BOTH MULTICELLS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS.

   ..DIAL/HART.. 08/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42979932 44319811 45189614 44479559 42729681 42359879
               42979932 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2015
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