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Mesoscale Discussion 1624
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT TUE AUG 26 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO
   WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 262012Z - 262215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SEVERE HAIL/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO AND SOUTHEAST WY TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
   KS.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS /SOME STRONG/ CONTINUE TO INCREASE
   PARTICULARLY OVER THE CO FOOTHILLS AS OF 20Z...AND TO A LESSER
   EXTENT OVER WESTERN CO/FAR SOUTHEAST WY. WHILE SOME INHIBITION IN
   THE BOUNDARY LAYER SEEMINGLY EXISTS IN THE SHORT-TERM ACROSS THE
   PLAINS...STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP/SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS AS
   ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION OCCURS /UP TO 1000-1500 J PER KG MLCAPE/.
   AIDED BY WEAK LEE-SIDE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT...THE SCENARIO WILL
   BE INFLUENCED BY MODEST LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE/MOISTENING AND A POSSIBLY
   A WEAK EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AMID SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT. WITH
   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWP DATA ONLY CURRENTLY INDICATIVE OF 25-35 KT OF
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...RELATIVELY MODEST FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR REGIME
   SHOULD LIMIT THE OVERALL ORGANIZATION/EXTENSIVENESS OF THE SEVERE
   RISK. NEVERTHELESS...SOME OF THE STRONGER MULTICELLULAR DEVELOPMENT
   MAY POSE A RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL AND/OR LOCALLY DAMAGING
   WINDS...INITIALLY ACROSS THE CO FRONT RANGE VICINITY...AND
   SUBSEQUENTLY INTO THE HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING
   HOURS.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/26/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...GLD...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41990508 42840369 42270226 41190145 39340182 38980377
               39760514 41990508 

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Page last modified: August 26, 2014
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