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Mesoscale Discussion 1624
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1624
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT THU AUG 06 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...COASTAL SC...FAR SE GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 062208Z - 062315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING TSTM ACTIVITY ACROSS W-CNTRL GA AND CNTRL SC IS
   EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS...MOVING INTO COASTAL SC
   AND FAR SE GA. DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT DOES NOT APPEAR OVERLY
   FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS AND THE CURRENT EXPECTATION IS THAT A
   DOWNSTREAM WATCH IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THE MAJORITY OF THE SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ACROSS THE
   REGION SHOW A RELATIVELY COOLER CONDITIONS THAN LOCATIONS FARTHER
   W...WITH TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 70S AND LOW 80S. THESE
   COOLER CONDITIONS RESULTED FROM EARLIER CONVECTION WITH VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING THE ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW BOUNDARY NOW FROM
   ROUGHLY CAE TO VDI. THE CONDITIONS IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE
   BOUNDARY ARE STILL QUITE WARM WITH THE APPROACHING TSTMS LIKELY TO
   PERSIST AND PERHAPS STRENGTHEN AS THEY ENCOUNTER GREATER INSTABILITY
   AND UPDRAFTS ARE ENHANCED AS A RESULT OF BOUNDARY COLLISION.
   HOWEVER...THE LESS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FARTHER DOWNSTREAM /SOUTH
   AND EAST OF A LINE FROM MNI TO AMG/ ARE EXPECTED TO LEAD TO A
   GRADUALLY WEAKENING TSTMS. AS SUCH...THE DOWNSTREAM SVR THREAT IS
   EXPECTED TO BE SPATIALLY LIMITED AND THE NEED FOR A DOWNSTREAM WATCH
   IS LOW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/06/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ILM...CHS...CAE...JAX...FFC...

   LAT...LON   32478239 33128177 33688092 34048014 34107939 34007899
               33797886 33487905 33037928 32727978 32378040 31938096
               31598125 31848231 32478239 

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Page last modified: August 06, 2015
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