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Mesoscale Discussion 1625
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1625
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0109 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MO/IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271809Z - 272045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WINDS/HAIL THIS
   AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS PLACES A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT FROM
   W-CNTRL MO EWD TO NEAR STL TO S-CNTRL INDIANA. DIURNAL HEATING HAS
   LED TO MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
   BOUNDARY...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S.
   FRONTAL ASCENT...OROGRAPHIC CIRCULATIONS OVER THE OZARKS TO THE S OF
   THE FRONT...AND DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING-INDUCED BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS
   ON THE SRN FRINGES OF DEBRIS/MULTI-LAYERED CLOUDINESS N OF THE
   FRONT...WILL ALL CONTINUE TO YIELD AN UPTICK IN THE
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY OF CONVECTION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. RECENT RADAR
   TRENDS AFFIRM THIS NOTION...AS INHIBITION IS LACKING WITH
   MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z ILX/SGF RAOBS SUGGESTING 1500-3000 J/KG OF
   MLCAPE. SUCH BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT INTENSE UPDRAFTS/DOWNDRAFTS WITH
   ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...GENERALLY MODEST DEEP-LAYER BULK SHEAR PER AREA VWPS --
   AOB 20 KT IN THE 0-6-KM LAYER -- WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK FROM EVOLVING.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PAH...ILX...LSX...SGF...EAX...

   LAT...LON   38099435 39869229 40298909 39518784 38658816 37598972
               36809163 36839393 38099435 

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Page last modified: August 27, 2014
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