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Mesoscale Discussion 1626
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1626
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0205 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN OK AND THE TX PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271905Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO COULD PRODUCE MARGINALLY SVR WIND
   GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...WITHIN A MOIST AND UNCAPPED BOUNDARY LAYER...ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS UNDERWAY ALONG THE
   PERIPHERY OF A STEEP SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATE PLUME EXTENDING FROM THE TX
   S PLAINS TO CNTRL OK. THE OVERLAP OF 7.5-8.5 C/KM LAPSE RATES IN
   THIS LAYER WITH DEWPOINTS PREDOMINANTLY IN THE 60S IS YIELDING
   1500-2500 J/KG OF MLCAPE PER MODIFICATIONS TO 12Z OUN/AMA RAOBS.
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS IMPLY A STREAM OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL MOISTURE
   EMANATING FROM THE SW...WHICH WILL ENHANCE SHELTERING OF INCIPIENT
   UPDRAFTS. FURTHERMORE...CONTINUED DIURNAL HEATING WILL BOLSTER
   BAROCLINICITY ALONG EDGES OF PATCHY CLOUDS ACROSS THE REGION...ALONG
   WITH BUOYANCY...TO SUPPORT AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY. HOWEVER...VWPS SUGGEST GENERALLY AOB 20 KT OF
   FLOW IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE TROPOSPHERE...WHICH WILL SUPPRESS
   CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION...WITH A PRIMARILY PULSE CONVECTIVE MODE
   ANTICIPATED. THIS WILL GREATLY LIMIT THE SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...OUN...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33850088 33780166 34370174 35500111 36699942 36389877
               35659897 34789958 33850088 

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Page last modified: August 27, 2014
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