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Mesoscale Discussion 1627
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1627
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0237 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO TO WESTERN NEB/NORTHWEST
   KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 271937Z - 272130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN INITIAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL...AND SUBSEQUENTLY
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS/PERHAPS A TORNADO...SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE
   THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING HOURS. WHILE A WATCH
   ISSUANCE DOES NOT APPEAR IMMINENT/CERTAIN...DEVELOPMENTAL TRENDS
   WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR A POSSIBLE
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...WITH AN UPPER LOW STEADILY SPREADING EASTWARD OVER THE
   CENTRAL ROCKIES...EARLY/MID-AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSIS FEATURES A
   GRADUALLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW /1013 MB/ CENTERED ACROSS SOUTHEAST
   CO...WITH A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING
   NORTHWEST-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS WESTERN NEB AND NORTHWEST/CENTRAL KS.
   WHILE CLOUD COVER IS RELATIVELY THICK IN THE VICINITY OF THE
   AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...STRONGER STORMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED
   ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHWEST/WEST-CENTRAL KS AS OF 1915Z. ISOLATED
   BOUTS OF SEVERE HAIL WILL INITIALLY BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY...AND OTHER DEVELOPMENT IN VICINITY OF THE BOUNDARY THROUGH
   THE AFTERNOON. IN THIS CORRIDOR...MODERATE BUOYANCY COUPLED WITH
   WIND PROFILES CHARACTERIZED BY MODEST SPEEDS/AMPLE
   LOW-TO-MID-TROPOSPHERIC VEERING COULD SUPPORT SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF SEVERE HAIL.

   MEANWHILE...FARTHER WEST...ADDITIONAL STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT IS ANTICIPATED BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS
   NORTHEAST/EAST-CENTRAL CO...INITIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT RANGE
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER CONTINUES TO WARM/DESTABILIZE. THIS SCENARIO
   WILL BE AIDED BY A MODESTLY STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE REGIME
   AND INCREASING INFLUENCES OF THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...INCLUDING
   DPVA AND AN ADVECTING PLUME OF STEEPER MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ATTENDANT TO AN UPPER DRY SLOT PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY.

   ..GUYER/MEAD.. 08/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   41400209 39759940 38369942 38880183 38960293 38610434
               39660516 41020417 41400209 

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Page last modified: August 27, 2014
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