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Mesoscale Discussion 1628
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0241 PM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL PA ENEWD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 271941Z - 272215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND A FEW ISOLATED STORMS COULD PRODUCE
   DMGG WIND GUSTS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...BENEATH BROADLY CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT...AND WELL
   DOWNSTREAM OF A MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE ONTARIO/QUEBEC BORDER
   PER WATER VAPOR LOOPS...INSOLATION IS SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF
   7-8-C/KM SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES ACROSS THE REGION. DIFFERENTIAL
   HEATING OVER THE WRN FRINGES OF THIS CORRIDOR AND ASCENT ALONG A
   DIFFUSE/ILL-DEFINED BOUNDARY EXTENDING ACROSS THE AREA...HAVE
   SUPPORTED RECENT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL PA TO SERN NY. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE MCD AREA...AS VIS IMAGERY INDICATES PATCHY CU
   DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THE AFOREMENTIONED CORRIDOR OF STEEPER LAPSE
   RATES. DEWPOINTS IN THE MIDDLE/UPPER 60S ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE ON
   THE ORDER OF 1000-1500 J/KG...WHICH MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
   THUNDERSTORMS. WITH DCAPE REACHING AROUND 800-1000 J/KG ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION...SPORADIC DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. HOWEVER...WITH ONLY 15-25 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SAMPLED BY AREA
   VWPS...AND WITHOUT STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL
   SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT EXPECTED TO OCCUR.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/27/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...BGM...CTP...

   LAT...LON   40247817 40907761 41677586 42627249 42647099 41957118
               40897382 39967691 40247817 

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Page last modified: August 27, 2014
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