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Mesoscale Discussion 1628
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1628
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0839 AM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E-CNTRL AR / NRN AND CNTRL MS / W-CNTRL AL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071339Z - 071445Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE POSSIBILITY FOR SPORADIC 50-60 MPH WIND GUSTS
   ACCOMPANYING THE FORWARD-PROPAGATING QLCS MAY PROMPT A SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM WATCH.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED IN THE SHORT TERM.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A QLCS BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED
   ACROSS THE GREATER MEMPHIS AREA AND MOVING SEWD AROUND 40 KT. 
   DOWNSTREAM OF THE QLCS...STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR THIS MORNING AS
   TEMPS RISE THROUGH THE 80S AMIDST BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE
   70S.  STRONGLY VEERING SWLY TO NWLY FLOW IN THE LOWEST FEW KM WITH
   30-40 KT FLOW IN THE 1.5-4.0 KM LAYER PER KNQA AND KGWX VAD DATA
   LEND SUPPORT FOR SUSTAINING AT LEAST A CONTINUATION OF THE QLCS INTO
   N-CNTRL MS AND PERHAPS FARTHER SSEWD BY MIDDAY.  UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
   REGARDING THE COVERAGE OF STRONGER WINDS WITH THE HIGHEST MEASURED
   GUST RECORDED IN NERN AR AT KM18 WITH A GUST OF 37 KT WHILE OBSERVED
   GUSTS IN THE GREATER MEMPHIS AREA HAVE REMAINED BELOW 30 KT AS OF
   1335Z.

   ..SMITH/DIAL.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BMX...MEG...JAN...LZK...

   LAT...LON   33039002 35109182 34939024 35398964 33838808 33028822
               32588909 33039002 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2015
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