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Mesoscale Discussion 1629
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0112 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF SRN IA...WRN IL...NRN MO...NERN
   KS...FAR SERN NEB

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281812Z - 282045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR MARGINAL SVR-TSTM
   POTENTIAL THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC MESOANALYSIS INDICATES A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
   BISECTING IA FROM NW TO SE THAT EXTENDS FARTHER SE TO THE LOWER OHIO
   VALLEY. BROAD...MODEST ISENTROPIC ASCENT IS MAINTAINING
   CLOUDS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS
   BOUNDARY. THIS HAS GIVEN RISE TO A WAVY DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
   BOUNDARY ANALYZED ACROSS NRN MO INTO NERN KS. SFC WIND FIELDS
   SUGGEST THAT CONVERGENCE ALONG EITHER OF THESE BOUNDARIES IS WEAK.
   HOWEVER...DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS COUPLED WITH
   STRENGTHENING BAROCLINICITY INVOF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY
   WILL LIKELY FOSTER AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS LOW-LEVEL WAA PERSISTS -- ESPECIALLY
   NEAR/ON THE COOLER SIDE OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY.

   STRONG HEATING OF RICH BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE CONTINUES ON THE WARM
   SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY...SUPPORTING 1000-2000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.
   HOWEVER...VWP DATA SUGGEST THAT ANY SUBSTANTIVE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   CAPABLE OF SUPPORTING MORE ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS EXISTS ON THE
   COLD SIDE OF THIS BOUNDARY WHERE INSTABILITY IS MORE MARGINAL.
   NEVERTHELESS...THE OVERLAP OF BUOYANCY/VERTICAL SHEAR MAY BE
   SUFFICIENT ACROSS THE MCD AREA TO SUPPORT A FEW MULTICELL CLUSTERS
   WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SVR HAIL. A
   BRIEF/TRANSIENT SUPERCELL OR TWO MAY ALSO OCCUR WHERE SFC WINDS ARE
   MORE BACKED BENEATH 25-30-KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS SAMPLED BY THE DMX/DVN
   VWPS N OF THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY. SUCH ACTIVITY COULD
   PRODUCE A WEAK TORNADO. HOWEVER...WITHOUT GREATER COVERAGE OF
   FAVORABLE JUXTAPOSITION OF STRONGER BUOYANCY/SHEAR FOR SVR
   THUNDERSTORMS...THE OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   41679144 41599047 40569061 39989141 39579266 39029586
               39219631 40069564 41109370 41679144 

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Page last modified: August 28, 2014
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