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Mesoscale Discussion 1629
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1629
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0130 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN MS / SWRN AND SRN AL / WRN FL PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071830Z - 071915Z

   CORRECTED FOR STATE IDENTIFIER

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN ISOLD WIND DAMAGE RISK WILL LIKELY DEVELOP/MOVE SEWD
   INTO SRN AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED MCV 10 MI W CBM WITH
   A SMALL ORGANIZED CLUSTER OF STORMS MOVING SEWD IN W-CNTRL AL.  KNMM
   MEASURED A 37 KT WIND GUST WITHIN THE PAST HOUR ON THE WRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE STORM CLUSTER.  SUBJECTIVE SURFACE MESOANALYSIS PLACES AN
   OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDING W AND ARCING NWWD INTO W-CNTRL MS AND
   SERN AR.  DOWNSTREAM OF THE STORM CLUSTER...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   CONTINUES TO DESTABILIZE AS TEMPS INCREASE INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH
   LOW-MID 70S DEWPOINTS.  ALTHOUGH H85-H3 MEAN FLOW DECREASES WITH SWD
   EXTENT FROM N-CNTRL MS INTO SWRN AL...20-30 KT H7 FLOW SAMPLED BY
   AREA 88D VAD LEND SOME SUPPORT FOR DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL.  

   WHILE THE ONGOING CLUSTER IN PRESENT FORM WILL LIKELY NOT REQUIRE AN
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY
   SHOWS A BUILDING CU FIELD OVER SERN MS AND SWRN AL.  IF ADDITIONAL
   STORMS DEVELOP AND INTENSIFY...THEN THE PROBABILITY FOR A WATCH WILL
   INCREASE GIVEN THE MODERATE BUOYANCY LOCATED DOWNSTREAM OVER SRN
   PORTIONS OF AL/WRN FL PANHANDLE.  THE STRONGER MULTICELLS THAT CAN
   MANAGE TO DEVELOP WILL PROBABLY BE CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED POCKETS OF
   WIND DAMAGE.

   ..SMITH/DIAL.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...JAN...

   LAT...LON   30518748 31468862 32168860 32358789 31498586 30868556
               30518597 30408680 30518748 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2015
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