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Mesoscale Discussion 1630
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0200 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE...TX SOUTH
   PLAINS...WRN OK...CNTRL/SRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 281900Z - 282130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST
   THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...SFC OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A COLD FRONT ARCING FROM
   CNTRL KS TO THE NRN TX PANHANDLE...WITH THIS BOUNDARY REMAINING
   STATIONARY FARTHER W INTO NRN NM. A SFC TROUGH EXTENDS S OF THE
   FRONT FROM THE NERN TX PANHANDLE TO SERN NM. LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ARE STEEPENING W OF A MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD BAND THAT IS ADVANCING
   EWD FROM CNTRL KS TO WRN OK AND THE LOW ROLLING PLAINS OF TX. THIS
   IS YIELDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE BUOYANCY INVOF THE SFC
   TROUGH. VISIBLE SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT ONGOING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE TX PANHANDLE. ADDITIONAL
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BLOSSOM FROM THIS REGIME AND PERHAPS FARTHER
   N ALONG THE COLD FRONT INTO KS...AS DCVA SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA IN
   ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER PV MAX CROSSING CO PER MOISTURE-CHANNEL
   IMAGERY. GIVEN 25-35 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW SURROUNDING THE PV MAX AS
   SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS...A FEW ORGANIZED/SUSTAINED STORMS INCLUDING
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS AND MARGINAL SUPERCELLS COULD EVOLVE. ISOLATED
   SVR HAIL/WIND COULD OCCUR WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER...RELATIVELY
   WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW EVIDENT IN SFC OBS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF
   VWP DATA CAST SUBSTANTIAL UNCERTAINTY ON THE COVERAGE OF SUCH
   POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...THE SPATIAL EXTENT OF SUCH RISK WILL BE
   LIMITED BY STUNTED DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   AFOREMENTIONED MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD BAND.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ICT...OUN...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33920258 34640253 36590024 38129906 38939856 38459803
               36779845 34969951 34050045 33680193 33920258 

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Page last modified: August 28, 2014
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