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Mesoscale Discussion 1630
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1630
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0127 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHERN UTAH

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071827Z - 072030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...STORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN INTENSITY ACROSS
   NORTHERN ARIZONA AT THE CURRENT TIME AND WILL POSE AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE WIND THREAT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  A WW
   WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...A GRADUAL INCREASE IN INTENSITY/LIGHTNING ACTIVITY HAS
   BEEN NOTED WITH CONVECTION CURRENTLY ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA...WITH
   ORGANIZATION INTO A LINE OF STORMS CURRENTLY OBSERVED ACROSS WESTERN
   COCONINO CO. ARIZONA.  INSTABILITY SHOULD GRADUALLY CONTINUE
   INCREASING DUE TO WARMING SURFACE TEMPERATURES/INSOLATION THIS
   AFTERNOON...AND STORM ORGANIZATION AND COVERAGE SHOULD BOTH INCREASE
   GIVEN 35-40 KNOT DEEP SHEAR AND ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH OVER WESTERN NEVADA.  DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY...ALTHOUGH THIS
   THREAT SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT ISOLATED.

   ..COOK/DIAL.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...GJT...FGZ...SLC...VEF...

   LAT...LON   35021137 34781242 34651319 34701351 35121369 35971344
               36911267 37211225 37381183 37481144 37411092 37191052
               36801039 35981050 35761053 35021137 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2015
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