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Mesoscale Discussion 1631
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0343 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 282043Z - 282245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE MS RIVER MAY CONTINUE TO SPREAD
   EWD/ESEWD INTO/ACROSS CNTRL IL DURING THE AFTERNOON AND COULD
   PRODUCE ISOLATED INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SVR HAIL/WIND. HOWEVER...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS THAT EVOLVED WITHIN A ZONE OF WEAK WARM
   ADVECTION ACROSS SRN IA AND NRN MO HAVE LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO A
   MULTICELL CLUSTER CURRENTLY APPROACHING/CROSSING THE MS RIVER. SFC
   OBSERVATIONS DO NOT REVEAL ANY SUBSTANTIAL PRESSURE RISES IN THE
   WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...SUGGESTING LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT/DEPTH OF
   ANY MESOSCALE COLD POOL. REGARDLESS...THIS ACTIVITY LIES ALONG AN
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT INVOF A FRONT ANALYZED FROM BURLINGTON IOWA TO
   MATTOON ILLINOIS. THE AIR MASS S OF THIS BOUNDARY HAS BECOME
   STRONGLY UNSTABLE OWING TO INSOLATION AMIDST LOWER 70S SFC
   DEWPOINTS...WITH MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z ILX RAOB SUGGESTING MLCAPE
   AROUND 2000-2500 J/KG. WITH 20-25-KT MID-LEVEL WSWLYS SAMPLED BY THE
   DVN VWP...STORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO EXPERIENCE FORWARD
   PROPAGATION INTO PORTIONS OF CNTRL IL INVOF THE BOUNDARY.
   HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE SOME TENDENCY FOR NEW CELL DEVELOPMENT TO
   FAVOR SRN FLANKS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION OWING TO MORE UNSTABLE
   INFLOW OVER THESE AREAS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF SVR WIND/HAIL MAY
   ACCOMPANY THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR WILL LIKELY BE A DETERRENT TO A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL/GREATER-COVERAGE SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/MEAD.. 08/28/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...LSX...DVN...

   LAT...LON   40959059 40758876 40148825 39488861 39389024 40139129
               40959059 

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Page last modified: August 28, 2014
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