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Mesoscale Discussion 1631
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1631
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0201 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN ARIZONA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 071901Z - 072030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE AS THUNDERSTORMS
   GRADUALLY INCREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION
   AREA.  A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF
   THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INCREASED IN INTENSITY AND
   COVERAGE OVER THE PAST HOUR IN THE DISCUSSION AREA.  ALTHOUGH DEEP
   SHEAR/WIND PROFILES ARE A BIT WEAK FOR STORM ORGANIZATION...ISOLATED
   INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE
   POSSIBLE NEAR THE STRONGEST CELLS GIVEN 1000-1500 J/KG MLCAPE
   PRESENT IN AREAS THAT HAVE NOT YET BEEN CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED. 
   STORMS SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...BUT DECREASE
   AFTER SUNSET DUE TO LOSS OF HEATING.

   ..COOK/DIAL.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31741230 33211224 35201133 36101017 36080931 33750915
               32910876 32000837 31570833 31360843 31311103 31741230 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2015
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