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Mesoscale Discussion 1632
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0312 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEASTERN COLORADO...SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA...AND
   NORTHWESTERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 072012Z - 072245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED IN NORTHEASTERN
   COLORADO IN THE PAST HOUR...WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED
   THROUGH THE EVENING.  WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITHIN THE
   NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...A COUPLE OF ATTEMPTS AT CONVECTIVE INITIATION HAVE
   OCCURRED ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO OVER THE PAST HOUR.  LATEST
   OBSERVATIONS/HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION WILL
   DEVELOP/GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   EASTERN COLORADO AS MID-LEVEL ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPSTREAM
   SHORTWAVE APPROACHES THE REGION.  INITIAL DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE
   HIGH-BASED ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FRONT RANGE...WITH 30-40 DEGREE F
   DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS AND MODERATE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
   EXPECTED TO SUPPORT DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF
   LANDSPOUT-TYPE TORNADO IN VICINITY OF THE DENVER CYCLONE JUST EAST
   OF DENVER METRO.

   AS STORMS DEVELOP AND MOVE EASTWARD WITH TIME...THE ENVIRONMENT
   ACROSS NORTHWESTERN KANSAS AND SOUTHWESTERN NEBRASKA SHOULD
   GRADUALLY BECOME INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE FOR ROTATING STORMS WITH
   PERHAPS A COUPLE OF TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. 
   HERE...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER DEWPOINTS AND LOWER CLOUD
   BASES...WHILE AN INCREASING SOUTHEASTERLY LOW-LEVEL JET BENEATH
   30-35 KNOT MID-LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT
   TURNING/AMBIENT VORTICITY FOR UPDRAFT ROTATION.

   A WW ISSUANCE WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED TO ADDRESS THE THREAT THIS
   AFTERNOON.

   ..COOK/DIAL.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...CYS...

   LAT...LON   39020087 37820134 37330263 37600436 38550509 39780517
               40480481 41240357 42100225 42440154 42400054 41350022
               40170049 39680063 39020087 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2015
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