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Mesoscale Discussion 1632
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1632
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0749 PM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME PORTIONS OF SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 290049Z - 290215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT ACROSS FAR SERN SD AND
   POTENTIALLY INTO PORTIONS OF ADJACENT NERN NEB AND NWRN IA THROUGH
   ABOUT 02Z.  GIVEN AN OVERALL MARGINAL THREAT AND LIMITED
   SPATIOTEMPORAL RISK AREA...A WATCH IS NOT WARRANTED THIS EVENING.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY EVENING SURFACE ANALYSES SHOWED A WARM FRONT OR
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY EXTENDING NEWD FROM AN AREA OF LOW
   PRESSURE LOCATED OVER CENTRAL NEB INTO FAR SERN SD /BON HOMME AND
   YANKTON COUNTIES/ AND THEN EWD THROUGH LINCOLN COUNTY SD AND EXTREME
   NRN IA NEAR THE MN BORDER.  MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL STORMS WERE
   TENDING TO BECOME QUICKLY UNDERCUT BY AN OUTFLOW-ENHANCED EWD-MOVING
   BOUNDARY FROM NEAR AND NORTH OF THE NEB SURFACE LOW NEAR MITCHELL
   SD.  A MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BE FOCUSED INVOF THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY BOUNDARY IN FAR SERN SD WHERE OBJECTIVE ANALYSES
   INDICATED A CONCENTRATED CORRIDOR OF SURFACE VORTICITY AND 0-3 KM
   MLCAPE OF 100-125 J/KG...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-LEVEL
   STRETCHING AND TORNADO POTENTIAL.  MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL
   CONTINUE TO LIMIT STORM ORGANIZATION AND THE NEED FOR A WATCH. 
   EVENTUAL STABILIZATION OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING IS EXPECTED TO RESULT IN A DIMINISHING TREND OF THIS
   LOW TORNADO PROBABILITY.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...LBF...

   LAT...LON   42719849 43319761 43529652 43369594 42969612 42739725
               42279854 42369873 42719849 

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Page last modified: August 29, 2014
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