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Mesoscale Discussion 1633
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1633
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0133 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN KS...SERN NEB...NWRN MO...SWRN IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291833Z - 292100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AN AREA OF MARGINAL SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL WILL DEVELOP DURING
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AND LAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
   HOWEVER...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATE A
   WELL DEFINED MID-LEVEL VORT MAX LIFTING NEWD ALONG THE KS/NEB BORDER
   SW OF BEATRICE NEB. CLEARING SKIES IN THE WAKE OF THE RELATED
   WARM-CONVEYOR...MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD BAND HAVE ALLOWED SFC-3-KM LAPSE
   RATES TO STEEPEN FROM CNTRL KS NEWD INTO FAR SERN NEB -- I.E. TO THE
   EDGE OF THE CLOUD BAND. MEANWHILE...ASCENT ALONG A SFC TROUGH
   ATTENDANT TO THE VORT MAX BISECTING KS FROM N TO S...AND ALONG A
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING BOUNDARY E OF THE TROUGH EXTENDING NE/SW ACROSS
   N-CNTRL KS...ARE LOCALLY FOSTERING BOUNDARY-LAYER CU DEVELOPMENT IN
   THOSE REGIONS.

   DCVA ASSOCIATED WITH THE MIGRATORY VORT MAX...COUPLED WITH DIURNALLY
   DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS IN THE DIURNALLY HEATED BOUNDARY
   LAYER...MAY FOSTER THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE AREA IN THE
   1930Z-2100Z TIME FRAME. ANTECEDENT CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING HAS
   YIELDED POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THOUGH MLCAPE AROUND 500-1500
   J/KG OWING TO MIDDLE-60S SFC DEWPOINTS MAY SUPPORT A FEW STRONGER
   STORMS. ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DMGG WIND GUSTS/MARGINALLY SVR HAIL
   CANNOT BE RULED OUT. HOWEVER...LIMITED DEEP-LAYER SHEAR --
   ESPECIALLY NEAR THE CENTER OF THE VORT MAX -- WILL BE A DETERRENT TO
   A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR RISK. AMBIENT VERTICAL VORTICITY SURROUNDING
   THE VORT MAX COULD ALSO SUPPORT A WEAK TORNADO...THOUGH WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL STUNT THE OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   37669576 37519712 37829791 38859786 41189626 41359529
               40709460 38909462 37669576 

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Page last modified: August 29, 2014
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