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Mesoscale Discussion 1634
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0238 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WI...SERN MN...WRN UPPER MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 291938Z - 292215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS MAY INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS WELL IN ADVANCE OF A MID/UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY
   CROSSING ERN KS/NEB. SFC OBSERVATIONS AND PLAN-VIEW DEPICTIONS OF
   VWPS IMPLY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF MESOSCALE ASCENT ACROSS THE
   REGION...WITH THE ASCENT PRIMARILY TIED TO A BROAD WARM-FRONTAL ZONE
   ACROSS WI. STRONG HEATING ON THE S/SW SIDE OF THIS ZONE IS
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG DESTABILIZATION WITH
   DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 70S...THOUGH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WILL
   LIKELY REMAIN ONLY MODEST DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS.
   REGARDLESS...SFC-BASED CONVECTION MAY EVOLVE WHERE BAROCLINICITY IS
   ENHANCED ALONG A DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONE ON THE ERN FRINGES OF
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION FROM SRN MN INTO NWRN WI...AND PERHAPS FROM
   BOUNDARY-LAYER CU NEAR LA CROSSE. WHILE A FEW STORMS COULD APPROACH
   SVR THRESHOLDS GIVEN 25-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...THE LACK OF
   STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT AND THE PRESENCE OF POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE
   RATES SHOULD GREATLY LIMIT SUCH POTENTIAL.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MQT...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   43839420 45389281 46629003 46528894 45538892 44678959
               43759073 43569233 43839420 

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Page last modified: August 29, 2014
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