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Mesoscale Discussion 1634
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1634
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0541 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN AND CNTRL AR INTO NRN MS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 072241Z - 080115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED STORMS MAY FORM BY EARLY EVENING ACROSS
   NRN AR...WITH A CONDITIONAL THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
   EXTENDING SEWD INTO NRN MS.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS CU DEVELOPING NEAR A FRONT WHICH
   EXTENDS FROM NWRN AR INTO NRN MS. VERY STRONG INSTABILITY IS IN
   PLACE AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO ABOVE 100 F SW OF THE FRONT
   WITH MIXED-LAYER DEWPOINTS STILL ABOVE 70. SEVERAL STATIONS SHOWS
   DEWPOINTS NEAR 80 F NEAR THE FRONT ITSELF.

   FORCING FOR ASCENT IS WEAK...BUT SO IS CONVECTIVE INHIBITION...AND
   THIS WILL REMAIN TRUE EVEN AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE HIGH LEVELS OF
   MOISTURE. FURTHER...SEVERAL MODEL SOLUTIONS INDICATE AT LEAST
   ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WHICH APPEARS
   REASONABLE.

   ASSUMING STORMS FORM NEAR THE BOUNDARY...WINDS VEERING TO NWLY WITH
   HEIGHT SUGGEST SOME BRIEF SUPERCELL STRUCTURE WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
   LARGE HAIL...AND/OR MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH BOTH HAIL AND WET
   MICROBURSTS.  IF ENOUGH STORMS FORM...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL WIND THREAT
   COULD EMERGE FOR POINTS DOWNSTREAM.

   ELSEWHERE...A CU FIELD EXISTS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO W CNTRL
   AR. IF A STORM DEVELOPS HERE...LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS COULD
   OCCUR.

   ..JEWELL/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MEG...JAN...LZK...TSA...

   LAT...LON   33329051 33849164 34639346 34959375 35679370 35969362
               36409324 36399232 36289152 35539050 34838974 34298949
               33508974 33329051 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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