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Mesoscale Discussion 1635
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0302 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF ERN IA...NERN MO...FAR WRN IL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292002Z - 292230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED MARGINALLY SVR WIND/HAIL WILL EXIST
   WITH THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM NRN MO. HOWEVER...WW
   ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MULTICELL CLUSTERS ARE DEVELOPING NNEWD FROM NRN MO
   WITHIN THE WARM CONVEYOR STRUCTURE OF A CYCLONE CENTERED OVER
   KS/NEB. WHILE RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THIS ACTIVITY HAS BECOME
   LOOSELY ORGANIZED INTO BROKEN QUASI-LINEAR SEGMENTS...SFC
   OBSERVATIONS INDICATE NEGLIGIBLE EFFECTS ON THE ISALLOBARIC 
   PATTERN -- HIGHLIGHTING LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT/DEPTH OF ANY COLD
   POOL. HOWEVER...30-40 KT SLYS/SSWLYS SAMPLED BY AREA VWPS WILL ALLOW
   THIS ACTIVITY TO SPREAD INTO A DIURNALLY HEATED...MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER -- E.G. SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER 70S -- SUPPORTING 1500-2500
   J/KG OF MLCAPE. THIS DEGREE OF BUOYANCY MAY SUPPORT A FEW MARGINALLY
   SVR THUNDERSTORMS. REGARDLESS...MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE
   DEARTH OF AN ESTABLISHED COLD POOL...AND THE PAUCITY OF DEEP-LAYER
   FORCING FOR ASCENT IN JUXTAPOSITION WITH STRONGER BUOYANCY SHOULD
   ALL MARGINALIZE THE SVR RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...ARX...DMX...EAX...

   LAT...LON   39909233 41009301 42559334 43359273 43379167 42519102
               40389085 39739148 39909233 

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Page last modified: August 29, 2014
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