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Mesoscale Discussion 1635
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1635
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0542 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/ERN SD...SE ND...W-CNTRL MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072242Z - 072345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST/INCREASE IN COVERAGE
   ACROSS CNTRL/ERN SD...SE ND...AND W-CNTRL MN. ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS
   ARE POSSIBLE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL AS THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RAPIDLY DEVELOPED ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
   EXTENDING FROM HCO IN FAR NW MN SWWD TO A SURFACE LOW CENTERED JUST
   NW OF PIR AND THEN SWD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL SD. THE AREA
   APPEARS TO BE UNDER WEAK SHORTWAVE RIDGING....SUGGESTING THE
   LARGE-SCALE ENVIRONMENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR LONG-LIVED
   TSTMS. HOWEVER...MANY OF THE MESOSCALE DETAILS ARE FAVORABLE
   INCLUDING GOOD CONVERGENCE ALONG THE SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS SD AND
   LOCALLY ENHANCED DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE ND. MODERATE TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY IS PRESENT ACROSS THE REGION AND STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED
   THOSE MESOSCALE-FAVORED AREAS MENTIONED ABOVE. KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   IS ALSO DECENT WITH THE ABR AND MVX VADS SAMPLING LONG HODOGRAPHS
   AND 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR OF 43 AND 51 KT...RESPECTIVELY. AS SUCH...SOME
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE.

   CURRENT RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THE SHORTWAVE RIDGING IS DAMPENING MORE
   ROBUST STORM DEVELOPMENT SOMEWHAT THUS FAR. ENVIRONMENT DOWNSTREAM
   OF THE ACTIVITY ACROSS S-CNTRL SD IS NOT QUITE A MOIST AS WHERE IT
   DEVELOPED WITH THE TSTMS THERE NOT EXPECTED TO GO TO MUCH FARTHER E
   BEFORE WEAKENING. FARTHER NE...DESPITE THE ANTICIPATED LACK OF
   LONG-LIVED STORM ORGANIZATION...SOME SEVERE STORMS ARE STILL
   EXPECTED GIVEN THE FAVORABLE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT
   WITH LARGE HAIL /PARTICULARLY DURING AND JUST AFTER INITIAL
   DEVELOPMENT/ AND SOME DAMAGING WINDS POSSIBLE. THE LACK OF STRONGER
   LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE TORNADO THREAT LOW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46569560 45819610 45069685 44319757 43949794 42989883
               43039977 44370004 46059896 47269807 47719749 47869671
               47679584 46569560 

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Page last modified: August 07, 2015
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