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Mesoscale Discussion 1636
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0626 PM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 292326Z - 300130Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO MARGINALLY-SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY TO MID EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL INTO
   NORTH-CENTRAL WI.  GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. 
   LIMITED COVERAGE OF THE STRONGER STORMS PRECLUDES THE NEED FOR A
   WATCH.  THE THREAT FOR STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH BY
   MID-EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER STABILIZES WITH THE LOSS OF
   DAYTIME HEATING.

   DISCUSSION...AT 23Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A SW-NE CORRIDOR
   OF STORMS FROM NORTH-CENTRAL WI TO NERN IA.  THIS ACTIVITY DEVELOPED
   WITHIN A DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE
   ADDITIONAL MORE ISOLATED STORMS ARE FORMING INVOF A W-E ORIENTED
   WARM FRONT MOVING NWD THROUGH CENTRAL TO NRN WI.  GIVEN THE MOVEMENT
   OF THIS LATTER BOUNDARY...DESTABILIZATION CONTINUES INTO NRN
   PORTIONS OF WI TO THE W/NW OF GRB.  A RATHER MOIST WARM SECTOR WITH
   PW EXCEEDING 1.5 INCHES AND ABOVE-NORMAL SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
   RESULTING IN MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE 1000-2000 J PER KG/...
   DESPITE THE LACK OF STRONGER LAPSE RATES.  THIS LATTER FACTOR IS
   LIKELY LIMITING THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE STRONGER STORMS INTO THIS
   EVENING.

   40-60 METER 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED AS THE ERN NEB/WRN IA
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND EWD-MOVING NRN PLAINS TROUGH APPROACH THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION.  FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT
   TO THIS SYSTEM WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS
   EVENING.  EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-40 KT ORIENTED NEARLY PARALLEL
   TO THE SW-NE BAND OF STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN PRIMARILY
   QUASI-LINEAR STORM STRUCTURES WITH LOCALLY STRONG WIND GUSTS BEING
   THE PRIMARY THREAT.

   ..PETERS/EDWARDS.. 08/29/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GRB...DLH...ARX...MPX...

   LAT...LON   44379117 44849103 45898955 45808830 45088831 44318928
               43898989 43939053 44039095 44379117 

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Page last modified: August 30, 2014
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