MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT TUE JUL 21 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...KS OK
   
   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 609...
   
   VALID 210634Z - 210800Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 609 CONTINUES.
   
   WELL-ORGANIZED MCS WITH DAMAGING/HIGH WINDS AND SOME PROBABILITY FOR
   A TORNADO WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS MUCH OF NERN OK OVER THE
   NEXT FEW HOURS. DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL WAS NOW SHIFTING FROM SERN
   KS INTO NERN OK.
   
   ABUNDANT INSTABILITY AND VERY SUPPORTIVE LARGER SCALE FORCING IN THE
   FORM OF A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN MODEST AND
   INCREASINGLY STRONG NW FLOW ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WELL-FORMED TSTM
   COMPLEX ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ATTM. ALL INDICATIONS SUGGEST THAT
   THIS CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN WELL ORGANIZED AROUND 1006MB
   SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT DEVELOPING EAST TOWARD THE
   OZARK PLATEAU/MOUNTAINS THROUGH DAYBREAK. MASS AND MOISTURE FLUX
   INTO THE SYSTEM COULD BE MARGINALLY AFFECTED/INTERRUPTED BY A
   LEADING CLUSTER OF STORMS FORMING ALONG WIND SHIFT/FRONT SWEEPING
   ACROSS WRN/CNTRL OK AHEAD OF THE LARGER COMPLEX IN NERN OK.
   NONETHELESS...STRENGTH/EXTENT OF COLD POOL...AND ORGANIZING
   INFLUENCE OF LARGER SCALE DEVELOPMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AN INCREASING
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS BULK OF TORNADO WATCH 609 IN OK.
   OVERALL TORNADO POTENTIAL APPEARS LIMITED BY BOTH CONVECTIVE MODE
   AND LIMITED SRH. HOWEVER...THIS POTENTIAL MAY BE ENHANCED ON THE
   STORM/MESO-SCALE IN THE IMMEDIATE VICINITY OF THE SURFACE LOW AND
   WARM FRONT WHERE SHEAR AND STORM INTERACTIONS COULD RESULT IN A
   BRIEF SPIN-UP.
   
   ..CARBIN.. 07/21/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...TSA...ICT...OUN...
   
   LAT...LON   36969813 37399811 37429712 38069715 37969553 37019555
               36899469 35329440 35429503 35199589 35419621 35479687
               36019762 36239807 36969813