Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1636
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1636 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1636
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0615 PM CDT FRI AUG 07 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN UT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 072315Z - 080015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME ISOLATED SVR HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
   WITH THE LINE OF TSTMS MOVING INTO NW UT. THIS ISOLATED SVR THREAT
   IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR A FEW MORE HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT
   CROSSES THE GREAT SALT LAKE.

   DISCUSSION...STRONGLY FORCED LINE OF TSTMS CONTINUES TO MOVE EWD
   INTO NRN UT. RECENT OBSERVATION AT ENV REPORTED A 69 KT GUST AS THE
   LINE MOVED THROUGH. CURRENT ESTIMATED MOTION OF THE LINE IS 240 DEG
   AT 23 KT...TAKING IT OVER THE NRN/CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE GREAT SALT
   LAKE AT 01Z. THIS MATCHES WELL WITH THE LATEST HRRR RUNS...WHICH
   ALSO SUGGEST THE LINE WILL BE GRADUALLY WEAKENING BY THEN. 

   CURRENT OBSERVATIONS AND RECENT GUIDANCE SUGGEST STRONGER MID-LEVEL
   WINDS EXIST FARTHER S -- I.E. ICX VAD REPORTING 55 KT AT 6 KM -- BUT
   MID-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH OVER NRN UT
   TO SUPPORT STRONG SHEAR /0-6 KM BULK SHEAR AROUND 45 KT PER THE
   LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND A CONTINUED ISOLATED SVR THREAT. WHILE HAIL
   IS POSSIBLE...THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WILL BE STRONG GUSTS
   ASSOCIATED WITH STORM OUTFLOW. LIMITED SPATIAL EXTENT OF THE SVR
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW BUT TRENDS ACROSS
   THE AREA WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/07/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SLC...

   LAT...LON   41601369 41921331 41831279 41421247 40891224 40391209
               39991217 39671242 39391270 39221303 39341338 39601345
               39831336 40231332 40661339 41231361 41601369 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 08, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities