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Mesoscale Discussion 1638
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1638
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0114 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN NEB...NRN KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479...

   VALID 080614Z - 080745Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 479
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LIKELY WILL CONTINUE NEAR
   THE CENTRAL INTO EASTERN KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA THROUGH THE
   07-10Z TIME FRAME.  IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
   FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...PERIODIC STRONG SURFACE GUSTS
   MAY REMAIN POSSIBLE BEFORE ACTIVITY WEAKENS TOWARD/SHORTLY AFTER
   DAYBREAK.  A NEW WW IS NOT CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED...BUT TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY...LIGHTNING AND RADAR DATA
   INDICATE SUBSTANTIAL WEAKENING OF CONVECTION ALONG THE LEADING EDGE
   OF EASTWARD SURGING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...NOW APPROACHING THE
   BEATRICE AREA.  STRONGEST CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS NOW FOCUSED
   ALONG THE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONTAL ZONE BACK TO THE WEST
   SOUTHWEST...GENERALLY NEAR AND JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL
   KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER AREA.  THIS APPEARS NEAR THE NOSE OF A 40+ KT
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET...IN A ZONE OF ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION...AND MOST FAVORABLE INFLOW OF MOIST...POTENTIALLY
   UNSTABLE AIR.  ALTHOUGH DEEP LAYER SHEAR APPEARS SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
   FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS...FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH AND
   INTENSIFICATION APPEARS POSSIBLE NEAR THE STATE BORDER
   AREA...ROUGHLY NEAR AND WEST THROUGH EAST OF THE CONCORDIA AREA. 
   THIS COULD EVENTUALLY LEAD TO ANOTHER DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING AND
   EASTWARD SURGING COLD POOL ACCOMPANIED BY THE RISK FOR POTENTIALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...EAX...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   40159912 40419824 40439718 40189592 39699532 39039638
               39119791 39359940 40159912 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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