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Mesoscale Discussion 1639
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1639
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0527 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...E CNTRL KS INTO W CNTRL MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081027Z - 081230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...IT IS STILL NOT CERTAIN THAT A WATCH IS NECESSARY...BUT A
   LINGERING SMALL STORM CLUSTER COULD IMPACT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   GREATER KANSAS CITY METROPOLITAN AREA BY 11-12Z...BEFORE SPREADING
   TOWARD THE MISSOURI OZARKS THIS MORNING.  THIS MAY CONTINUE TO BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...LOCALLY HEAVY
   RAINFALL AND OCCASIONAL LOCALIZED STRONG TO SEVERE SURFACE GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...A CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW MERGER MAY HAVE CONTRIBUTED THE
   INTENSIFICATION AND MAINTENANCE OF THE FAIRLY CONCENTRATED BUT
   STRONG/SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT THAT SPREAD FROM THE MANHATTAN TO
   TOPEKA AREA DURING THE PAST HOUR OR TWO.  AT LEAST SOME RECENT
   WEAKENING HAS BECOME EVIDENT AS IT PROGRESSES EAST SOUTHEASTWARD
   AROUND 35 KT.  IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER THIS IS JUST A TEMPORARY
   FLUCTUATION IN INTENSITY...OR THE BEGINNING OF A CLEAR DIMINISHING
   TREND...BUT THESE STORMS DO APPEAR TO BE IN THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING
   TO THE EAST OF THE BETTER REMAINING LOW-LEVEL JET FORCING...WHICH
   SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN THROUGH DAYBREAK.  HOWEVER...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER AIR MASS TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STORMS IS
   INCREASINGLY MOIST AND CHARACTERIZED BY SIZABLE CAPE.  IT MAY NOT BE
   OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT FORCING ALONG THE CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS COULD
   MAINTAIN CONVECTION INTO/THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS BY
   13-15Z...WITH AT LEAST SOME CONTINUED RISK FOR STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...

   LAT...LON   39009495 38939425 38419302 37819331 37659447 38209573
               38339583 38639524 39009495 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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