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Mesoscale Discussion 1640
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0336 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN OHIO...SOUTHERN
   INDIANA...PORTIONS OF KENTUCKY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 302036Z - 302230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS CROSSING THE REGION INTO THE EVENING HOURS
   MAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO
   ENCOURAGE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AS
   INSOLATION IN CLOUD BREAKS AND THROUGH TRANSLUCENT MID/HIGH CLOUDS
   HAVE STEEPENED SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES. WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1000
   J/KG...SUFFICIENT BUOYANCY EXISTS FOR A FEW ROBUST UPDRAFTS...AS HAS
   BEEN IMPLIED BY MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY. PW VALUES AROUND 1.75 INCHES
   PER GPS DATA WILL BOLSTER WATER-LOADING PROCESSES TO ENHANCE
   DOWNDRAFT POTENTIAL. FURTHERMORE...WITH DCAPE AROUND 1000 J/KG IN
   AREAS WHERE INSOLATION HAS BEEN MAXIMIZED -- I.E. CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHERN OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY -- A FEW WET MICROBURSTS CAPABLE
   OF ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT. WILMINGTON OHIO AND
   LOUISVILLE KENTUCKY VWPS INDICATE 25-30-KT SWLYS AT 3 KM AGL...WHICH
   WILL /1/ ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT TO ENCOURAGE THE RISK
   FOR STRONG-TSTM WINDS AND /2/ OFFER SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL SHEAR FOR A
   POSSIBLE WEAK TORNADO. HOWEVER...WITH MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...POOR
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND THE LACK OF STRONGER DEEP-LAYER
   ASCENT...THE OVERALL SVR POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIMITED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/30/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...CLE...JKL...ILN...LMK...IND...PAH...

   LAT...LON   37568742 39128563 40668343 40638226 39948159 38558285
               37228505 36738672 36928770 37568742 

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Page last modified: August 30, 2014
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