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Mesoscale Discussion 1640
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1640
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0947 AM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL FL

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081447Z - 081715Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
   REMAINDER OF THE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON...AS A BROKEN BAND OF
   STORMS ADVANCES TO THE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL FL.  A FEW GUSTS
   APPROACHING 40-50 KT CANNOT BE RULED OUT...THOUGH OVERALL SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO WARRANT A WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AT 1435Z...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED A LARGE CLUSTER
   OF STORMS LOCATED ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITH STORMS
   ALSO EXTENDING INLAND THROUGH NORTH-CENTRAL FL /FROM HERNANDO TO
   VOLUSIA COUNTIES/.  THE EQUATORWARD ACTIVITY INCLUDING THE STORMS
   OVER THE FL PENINSULA WERE DEVELOPING ALONG A SOUTHWARD-ADVANCING
   FRONT...WHICH TRAILED FROM AN AREA OF LOWER PRESSURE LOCATED
   OFFSHORE OF THE CAROLINAS.  THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE FRONT
   ACROSS CENTRAL FL IS DESTABILIZING GIVEN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PW
   AROUND 2 INCHES PER 12Z TBW SOUNDING/.  FURTHER DIABATIC HEATING
   INTO THE AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO VERY STRONG INSTABILITY
   /MLCAPE EXPECTED TO SURPASS 2500 J PER KG WITH A SURFACE TEMPERATURE
   NEAR 90 F/.  FORCING FOR ASCENT IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS WILL SUPPORT ADDITIONAL STORMS FROM NORTH TO
   SOUTH ACROSS THE CENTRAL PENINSULA WITH LOCALLY STRONG
   WET-MICROBURSTS BEING THE PRIMARY THREAT...AS SURFACE TO 3-KM LAPSE
   RATES STEEPEN.  WEAK MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK BULK SHEAR SHOULD
   LIMIT ORGANIZATION AND THE HAIL THREAT.

   ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MFL...MLB...TBW...

   LAT...LON   28658230 28898177 29028112 28988087 28448079 27608054
               27168097 27108182 27118228 27888278 28568260 28658230 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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