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Mesoscale Discussion 1641
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1641
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0131 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND PARTS OF THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081831Z - 081930Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING IN
   INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA...WITH ISOLATED
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS CONVECTION.  WW
   ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER INLAND PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN ALABAMA AND ALONG NORTHWARD-MOVING GUST FRONTS LOCATED
   ALONG THE IMMEDIATE GULF COAST.  THESE STORMS ARE IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY MEAGER NORTHERLY DEEP SHEAR VALUES
   AROUND 20-30 KNOTS...BUT VERY STRONG INSTABILITY WITH AROUND 3000
   J/KG MLCAPE.  GIVEN THE MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY...STRONGER CELLS IN
   THE DISCUSSION AREA WILL POSE A THREAT FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS AND PERHAPS ONE OR TWO INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  WITH TIME...CONTINUED INCREASING
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE/OVERTURNING AND STABILIZATION DUE TO THE
   NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF AIRMASS JUST SOUTH OF THE SEA-BREEZE/GUST
   FRONT SHOULD LESSEN THE INSTABILITY AND LEAD TO AN OVERALL WEAKENING
   TREND IN CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY TOWARD SUNSET.  GIVEN THE ISOLATED
   NATURE OF THE SEVERE THREAT...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TAE...BMX...MOB...

   LAT...LON   31408472 31618598 31828649 31978717 31978812 31488843
               30838833 30338782 30338679 30108577 29718516 29678462
               30038405 30448385 31088417 31408472 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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