Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1642
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1642 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1642
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1100 PM CDT SAT AUG 30 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL NORTH AND SOUTH DAKOTA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478...

   VALID 310400Z - 310530Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 478
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL DAKOTAS THROUGH THE 05-07Z TIME FRAME.  HOWEVER...THE SEVERE
   WEATHER THREAT APPEARS TO BE DIMINISHING AND THE REMAINING VALID
   PORTION OF THE WATCH COULD BE CANCELLED PRIOR TO THE SCHEDULED 07Z
   EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...ALTHOUGH LINGERING STORMS ARE GENERALLY ALIGNED ALONG A
   SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET AXIS WHICH HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40-50 KT AT
   850 MB...ACTIVITY GENERALLY APPEARS ROOTED WITHIN A LAYER OF FORCING
   FOR ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION...ABOVE AN INCREASINGLY
   STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH EASTWARD EXTENT ACROSS THE DAKOTAS.  AND
   CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE NORTH DAKOTA/SOUTH DAKOTA BORDER APPEARS
   SUPPRESSED BY INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH A PLUME OF WARMER ELEVATED
   MIXED LAYER AIR EMERGING FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...WHICH MAY
   CONTINUE TO MAKE NORTHWARD PROGRESS INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND
   SOUTHEASTERN NORTH DAKOTA OVERNIGHT.  THERE APPEARS LITTLE EVIDENCE
   TO SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR APPRECIABLE FURTHER CONVECTIVE
   INTENSIFICATION DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS SEEMS LOW.

   ..KERR.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   47490228 48030147 47989994 46369878 44829937 44080021
               44290113 45990112 47490228 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 31, 2014
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities