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Mesoscale Discussion 1643
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1643
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF CENTRAL/EASTERN ARIZONA AND WESTERN NEW
   MEXICO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 081927Z - 082100Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND INCREASED IN
   COVERAGE OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...WITH AN ISOLATED THREAT OF SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS AND/OR HAIL POSSIBLE IN STRONGER STORMS.  A WW IS NOT
   ANTICIPATED GIVEN THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG DAYTIME HEATING AND AN ATTENDANT INCREASE
   IN INSTABILITY.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE PRIMARILY
   MULTICELLULAR GIVEN RELATIVELY MEAGER DEEP SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR
   AROUND 20-30 KNOTS...ALTHOUGH LOW-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW AND ASSOCIATED
   RELATIVE INCREASE IN VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS ALLOWED FOR A COUPLE OF
   STORMS TO ACQUIRE ROTATION IN LOWER ELEVATIONS NORTH/EAST OF THE
   FLAGSTAFF AREA.  ISOLATED INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE THE
   PRIMARY THREAT WITH STRONGER CELLS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   REGION....ALTHOUGH HAIL IS POSSIBLE PRIMARILY WITH ANY ROTATING
   STORMS.  THIS THREAT IS PRIMARILY DIURNALLY DRIVEN AND SHOULD
   DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF INSOLATION.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...ABQ...EPZ...TWC...FGZ...PSR...

   LAT...LON   31651177 33231200 34801230 35881189 36601115 36801012
               36330873 34580768 32870759 31790821 31340824 31321107
               31651177 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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