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Mesoscale Discussion 1644
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NRN AL...NRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN...WRN
   NC...SWRN VA...SERN KY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 311825Z - 312030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS...THOUGH THE ISSUANCE OF A WW WILL
   NOT BE NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...DIURNALLY DEEPENING PBL CIRCULATIONS BENEATH
   MID/HIGH-LEVEL TRANSLUCENT CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO PERMIT AN
   INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS IN A MOIST...UNCAPPED ENVIRONMENT. THIS WILL OCCUR WITHIN THE
   EXTENSIVE FETCH OF DEEP-LAYER SWLYS E OF A MS-VALLEY TROUGH...WHICH
   WILL CONTINUE TO ENCOURAGE MOISTURE TRANSPORT INTO THE REGION. THE
   PRESENCE OF MLCAPE AROUND 500-1000 J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS...WITH PW VALUES AROUND 1.7-2.0 INCHES PER GPS
   DATA ENHANCING THE RISK FOR STRONG DOWNDRAFTS OWING TO WATER
   LOADING. FURTHERMORE...THE PRESENCE OF 25-35 KT OF FLOW IN THE
   1-3-KM LAYER PER AREA VWPS MAY FURTHER INCREASE THE RISK FOR STRONG
   TSTM WINDS VIA CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT. AN ISOLATED WET
   MICROBURST COULD PRODUCE A LOCALLY DMGG WIND GUST. HOWEVER...WITHOUT
   STRONGER INSOLATION...WITH POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...AND GIVEN
   MODEST DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK IS NOT
   EXPECTED.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...LMK...OHX...
   BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34088533 33868642 34228727 35588677 37168475 37168271
               36608156 35478277 34088533 

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Page last modified: August 31, 2014
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