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Mesoscale Discussion 1644
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1644
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0318 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST WY...SOUTHEAST MT...AND WESTERN SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082018Z - 082145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ARE EXPECTED TO
   INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST MT INTO
   WESTERN SD.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR THESE EXPECTED
   TRENDS WITH WW ISSUANCE POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT TRENDS IN MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY AND LIGHTNING
   DATA INDICATED A FEW STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED OVER NORTHEAST WY /CROOK
   COUNTY/...SOUTHEAST MT /PRIMARILY IN CARTER COUNTY/ AND WESTERN SD
   /LAWRENCE INTO BUTTE COUNTIES/.  THIS ACTIVITY IS FORMING WITHIN A
   REGIME OF INCREASED LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN VICINITY OF THE WESTERN
   EXTENSION OF A FRONT THROUGH LAWRENCE COUNTY SD TO NEAR AND
   NORTHEAST OF A SURFACE LOW IN NORTHEAST WY /LOCATED NEAR GCC/. 
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT WITHIN THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE ENHANCED AT THIS
   TIME BY DPVA ATTENDANT TO A LEAD MIDLEVEL IMPULSE...THOUGH WEAK
   DESTABILIZATION...THUS FAR...MAY BE LIMITING THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE
   ROBUST UPDRAFTS.  HOWEVER...STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
   TO MOVE INTO THE DISCUSSION AREA FROM CENTRAL WY AS THE ATTENDANT
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH...CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER EASTERN ID/FAR WESTERN
   WY...ADVANCES TO THE EAST.

   FURTHER DESTABILIZATION...INCREASING BULK SHEAR /35-50 KT/...AND THE
   APPROACH OF STRONGER LIFT SHOULD SUPPORT INCREASED DEVELOPMENT FOR
   STRONGER/SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS...WHILE STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS FAVOR
   SPLITTING SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   44020534 44560590 45050593 45580509 45690359 45370244
               44440192 43570221 43420319 43650443 44020534 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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