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Mesoscale Discussion 1645
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1645
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL/NORTHEASTERN KANSAS INTO SOUTHERN NEBRASKA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082057Z - 082300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST THIS
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING INITIALLY ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS...AND
   PERHAPS AS FAR EAST AS SOUTHEASTERN NEBRASKA OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
   HOURS.  TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WEATHER WATCH
   ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...AN ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORM HAS DEVELOPED NEAR
   RSL...WITH ADDITIONAL TOWERING CU IN A BAND FROM RSL SW TO NEAR DDC.
     THIS CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED IN AN ENVIRONMENT CONTAINING A
   WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER...WITH 30-35F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS...NEAR
   100F SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND 3KM AGL CLOUD BASES INDICATED ON
   HIGH-RES MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  A CONDITIONAL THREAT FOR SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS CONTAINING LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL EXIST
   DOWNSTREAM OF THIS AREA IF CONVECTION CAN MATURE AND MOVE
   EAST/NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE HIGHER BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE LOCATED
   ACROSS NORTHEASTERN KANSAS /CONTAINING MID-70S F DEWPOINTS/.  A
   NEGATING FACTOR FOR THIS CONDITIONAL THREAT HOWEVER...IS THE
   PRESENCE OF UPPER RIDGING AND MID-LEVEL WARMING THAT HAS OCCURRED
   THROUGHOUT THE DAY /AS EVIDENCED BY 1900 UTC RAOBS AT OAX AND TOP/
   WHICH COULD ACT TO SUPPRESS CONVECTION DEVELOPING NORTHEASTWARD
   UNTIL LATER INTO THE EVENING.  CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/GUYER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38939937 39469928 40269871 40639776 40389615 39389558
               38719649 38359800 38559900 38939937 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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