MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1001 AM CDT MON JUN 30 2008
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN OH INTO WV/WESTERN VA/SOUTHWEST
   PA
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 
   
   VALID 301501Z - 301700Z
   
   POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL INCREASE
   THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY/SOUTHERN OH
   INTO WV/WESTERN VA/SOUTHWEST PA. A WATCH IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED...HOWEVER CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED. A CATEGORICAL SLIGHT RISK WILL LIKELY BE ADDED FOR
   PORTIONS OF THE REGION WITH THE FORTHCOMING 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE
   OUTLOOK.
   
   RADAR/SATELLITE/LIGHTNING NETWORK TRENDS REFLECT TSTMS GRADUALLY
   INCREASING IN COVERAGE ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN KY INTO SOUTHERN
   OH LATE THIS MORNING. WITHIN THE BROAD EASTERN STATES LONGWAVE
   TROUGH...THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING BENEATH A POTENT/COMPACT
   VORTICITY MAXIMA PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY...WITH MORNING UPPER AIR
   ANALYSIS DEPICTING A COLD POCKET ALOFT ACROSS THE REGION /-14 C AT
   500 MB PER 12Z WILMINGTON OH RAOB/. WHILE TOTAL BUOYANCY WILL BE
   FAIRLY MARGINAL WITH 500 J/KG MLCAPE OR LESS FOR AREAS ALONG/WEST OF
   THE APPALACHIANS...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING/COOL PROFILES ALOFT
   AND STEEP LOW TO MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR HAIL WITH THE
   STRONGER STORMS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. STRONG GUSTY WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE AS WELL AMIDST MODERATELY STRONG/LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES WITH 30-35 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR.
   
   ..GUYER.. 06/30/2008
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...MRX...JKL...ILN...LMK...
   
   36698427 37508470 39838142 40317820 38957833 37387933
   36838015