Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1646
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1646 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0358 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EASTERN CO AND WESTERN/CENTRAL KS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 082058Z - 082230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON
   INTO THE EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN CO INTO SOUTHWEST TO
   CENTRAL KS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...UPSLOPE FLOW INTO EASTERN CO WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT...ESPECIALLY IN SOUTHEAST CO WHERE THE GOES-R
   CLOUD TOP COOLING PRODUCT INDICATED STRONG COOLING RATES AND CAPPI
   DATA SHOWED A STRONG/SUSTAINED STORM IN NORTHWEST BACA COUNTY. 
   MEANWHILE...AN ENHANCED CU LINE WAS DEVELOPING ALONG A CORRIDOR OF
   LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM SOUTHWEST INTO
   CENTRAL AND NORTH-CENTRAL KS...WHERE THE BOUNDARY LAYER HAS BECOME
   DEEPLY MIXED...GIVEN SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND
   100 F.  FURTHER CU ENHANCEMENT IS POSSIBLE AS AN APPARENT MIDLEVEL
   DISTURBANCE...CURRENTLY MOVING INTO NORTHERN NM...PROGRESSES TO THE
   NORTHEAST ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
   STRONG INSTABILITY...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 35-45 KT...AND STEEP
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES EXTENDING FROM SOUTHEAST CO INTO CENTRAL KS ARE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS.

   ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...

   LAT...LON   37610298 38360337 39300267 39380163 39000026 38779939
               38289923 37799999 37270116 37200266 37610298 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 08, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities