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Mesoscale Discussion 1646
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1646
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0332 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF
   MD...DE...PA...NJ...NY...CT...MA...RI...NH...ME

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312032Z - 312230Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
   INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL
   BE MONITORED...THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS CURRENTLY UNLIKELY.

   DISCUSSION...BREAKS/TRANSLUCENCY IN A PERSISTENT MULTI-LAYERED CLOUD
   BAND GENERALLY W OF THE INTERSTATE 95 CORRIDOR HAVE DEVELOPED NEWD
   FROM PORTIONS OF THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND. ATTENDANT
   DIABATIC HEATING OF A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING LOWER-70S SFC
   DEWPOINTS IS SUPPORTING A CORRIDOR OF MLCAPE FROM 500 TO 2000 J/KG
   ACROSS THE MCD AREA. THE STRONGEST BUOYANCY EXTENDS FROM THE
   BALTIMORE AREA TO NYC OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVELY OVERTURNED AIR...WHERE
   STRONGER INSOLATION HAS FOSTERED STEEPER SFC-3-KM LAPSE RATES. AS
   SUCH...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY AND SPREAD NEWD INTO/ACROSS PORTIONS OF NEW
   ENGLAND. VWPS ACROSS THE AREA ARE SAMPLING 25-30 KT OF FLOW IN THE
   1-3-KM LAYER...WHICH WILL ENHANCE CONVECTIVE MOMENTUM TRANSPORT.
   AND...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.75-2.00 INCHES PER GPS DATA ASSOCIATED
   WITH ENHANCED WATER LOADING...ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE. FURTHERMORE...WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER AND MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...SOME POSSIBILITY FOR A WEAK TORNADO EXISTS.
   HOWEVER...POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...THE LACK OF STRONGER
   DEEP-LAYER ASCENT...AND ONLY MODEST DEEP SHEAR SHOULD PRECLUDE A
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...GYX...BOX...OKX...ALY...PHI...CTP...LWX...

   LAT...LON   39477692 40667470 43077115 43067040 42187089 41767134
               40217344 39397483 38987650 39477692 

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Page last modified: August 31, 2014
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