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Mesoscale Discussion 1647
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0436 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 082136Z - 082300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR WITH
   A RESULTING CONDITIONAL SEVERE RISK. OVERALL SEVERE COVERAGE IS
   EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED AND A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE ANALYSIS AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEAL
   AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY -- ROUGHLY FROM JUST W OF RUE SEWD INTO FAR NE
   LA AT 21Z -- MOVING SWWD ACROSS CNTRL/S-CNTRL AR. TSTM INITIATION
   OCCURRED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN DREW COUNTY AROUND 20Z AND IN GRANT
   COUNTY JUST AFTER 21Z. THE DREW COUNTY ACTIVITY HAS ALREADY
   DIMINISHED WHILE THE GRANT COUNTY STORM STILL PERSISTS. ADDITIONAL
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES SWWD
   INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY VERY WARM TEMPERATURES /102 TO
   106 DEG F/...GOOD LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW
   70S/...AND STRONG INSTABILITY /MLCAPE OVER 2500 J PER KG/. GIVEN
   THIS ENVIRONMENT...SOME SEVERE IS POSSIBLE WITH HAIL THE MAIN THREAT
   DURING THE DEVELOPING AND MATURING STAGES...THEN TRANSITIONING TO
   DAMAGING WINDS AS STORMS COLLAPSE WITHIN THE WEAKLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT. OVERALL TSTM COVERAGE /AND RESULTANT SEVERE THREAT/ IS
   EXPECTED TO BE ISOLATED WITH THE LACK OF MORE COVERAGE LIKELY
   PRECLUDING THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...JAN...LZK...SHV...

   LAT...LON   33929346 34469377 34789376 34919337 34589258 34159191
               33259145 33049203 33119249 33509308 33929346 

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Page last modified: August 08, 2015
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