MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0647 PM CDT WED JUL 22 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...NE CO...WRN AND NRN KS...SRN NE
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613...
   
   VALID 222347Z - 230115Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 613
   CONTINUES.
   
   THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THE CNTRL PART OF WW 613 SHOULD MOVE SWD
   WITH TIME THIS EVENING AND MAY AFFECT AREAS ACROSS WCNTRL KS THAT
   ARE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT WATCH. HOWEVER...THE INTENSITY OF THE
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE
   MID-EVENING. AS A RESULT...WW ISSUANCE IS NOT ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE
   DODGE CITY KS AREA.
   
   23Z SFC ANALYSIS CURRENTLY SHOWS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN WRN AND CNTRL
   NEB WITH A SFC LOW IN SE CO. A TROUGH EXTENDS NWD FROM THE LOW WITH
   THE RUC ANALYZING A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EAST OF
   THE TROUGH IN WRN KS. THIS WOULD BE THE PREFERRED CORRIDOR FOR
   CONTINUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. THE
   INSTABILITY COMBINED WITH ABOUT 40 KT OF VERTICAL SHEAR AND STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR LARGE HAIL. A FEW
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS
   CORRIDOR ACROSS MUCH OF SW...CNTRL AND NRN KS... INSTABILITY IS VERY
   WEAK AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW DECREASING LAPSE RATES WITH EWD
   EXTENT. THIS SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY IN SCNTRL AND SERN NEB WILL
   LIKELY DIMINISH AS THE STORMS MOVE TOWARD THE SERN BOUNDARY OF WW
   613.
   
   ..BROYLES.. 07/22/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...OAX...TOP...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...PUB...BOU...
   CYS...
   
   LAT...LON   38590203 38240202 38270110 38700114 38710015 39140019
               39119902 39579906 39569851 40019851 39999737 41439734
               41329759 41529773 41479827 41719832 41700029 41420026
               41360203 40990203 41000499 40330492 40340503 39980499
               39950367 38880374 38840405 38550404 38590203