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Mesoscale Discussion 1647
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1647
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0346 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...KS...OK...TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312046Z - 312245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR A COUPLE OF STRONG TO SEVERE
   STORMS FORMING AHEAD OF THE DRYLINE FROM SWRN KS TO THE ERN TX
   PANHANDLE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WHILE SOME HAIL AND HIGH WINDS
   COULD OCCUR...OVERALL THREAT AND DURATION APPEAR TOO LIMITED TO
   SUPPORT A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...HEATING AND DEEP MIXING ON THE LEADING EDGE OF A SLOWLY
   ADVANCING DRYLINE...AND NEAR LEE/THERMAL LOW ACROSS SWRN KS...HAVE
   LED TO  HIGH-BASED CU DEVELOPMENT FROM SWRN KS TO THE TX
   PANHANDLE...AND MORE RECENT ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT IN SWRN KS.
   WEAK BUT PERSISTENT LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   DRYLINE AND SURFACE LOW...IN THE PRESENCE OF NEUTRAL TO WEAK
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT...MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO AID MORE ISOLATED STORM
   INITIATION NEAR THESE FEATURES OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. ANY STORMS
   INITIATING AND MOVING EAST AMIDST WEAK DEEP-LAYER WLY STEERING FLOW
   MAY HAVE ACCESS TO GREATER INSTABILITY AND SOME CHANCE AT PRODUCING
   LARGE HAIL. MOST HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR WHERE DCAPE VALUES
   WELL IN EXCESS OF 1000 J/KG WOULD SUPPORT STRONG TO DAMAGING
   DOWNDRAFTS. STORM PERSISTENCE MAY BE LIMITED BY LACK OF STRONGER
   LARGE SCALE ASCENT AND EXPECT ANY SEVERE THREAT TO REMAIN TOO
   ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WATCH BUT THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED CLOSELY.

   ..CARBIN/HART.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...LUB...AMA...

   LAT...LON   33850127 33430195 33510203 33830197 34700145 35130133
               35690120 36730099 37310112 37720125 37990149 38220116
               38160051 37830015 37490006 36550007 36020012 35080037
               34620062 34270090 33850127 

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Page last modified: August 31, 2014
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