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Mesoscale Discussion 1648
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0357 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF NERN AL...NRN GA...WRN NC...ERN
   TN...ERN KY...CNTRL/SRN WV...WRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 312057Z - 312300Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR AN ISOLATED SVR THUNDERSTORM OR TWO CANNOT BE
   ENTIRELY RULED OUT DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. WW ISSUANCE IS NOT
   NEEDED.

   DISCUSSION...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION WITHIN A BROAD
   CORRIDOR OF NEWD MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS OCCASIONALLY SHOWN SIGNS OF
   ORGANIZATION/PERSISTENCE. A MARGINAL SUPERCELL STRUCTURE HAS EVEN
   BEEN INDICATED OVER ERN KY. THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR SIMILAR ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AS
   TRANSLUCENT MID/HIGH-LEVEL CLOUD COVERAGE HAS PERMITTED MODEST
   INSOLATION AMIDST A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER FEATURING DEWPOINTS IN THE
   60S TO LOWER 70S. WITH AREA VWPS INDICATING 20-30-KT WSWLYS IN THE
   1-3-KM LAYER...AN ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT. AND...WITH LOW LCLS ASSOCIATED WITH THE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER...THE RISK FOR A WEAK TORNADO MAY EXIST. HOWEVER...THE LACK OF
   STEEPER LOW/MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND THE PRESENCE OF ONLY MODEST
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD PREVENT A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR-TSTM RISK
   FROM OCCURRING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LWX...RNK...RLX...GSP...MRX...JKL...FFC...OHX...
   HUN...

   LAT...LON   34768675 37038436 38508216 38948002 37867930 36698026
               35368236 34478504 34768675 

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Page last modified: August 31, 2014
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