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Mesoscale Discussion 1648
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1648
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0656 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN/E-CNTRL MN...FAR NW WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480...

   VALID 082356Z - 090100Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...ONGOING CLUSTER IN AITKIN COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
   WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT POSSIBLE ON THE FRONT AS IT PROGRESSES
   EWD. AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK WILL EXIST FOR THE NEXT HOUR
   OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...SUPERCELL THAT MOVED THROUGH CARLTON COUNTY RECENT
   DISSIPATED...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT EXPECTED GIVEN THE ITS EWD
   PROGRESSION INTO A LESS FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. TSTM CLUSTER IN NRN
   AITKIN COUNTY IS JUST N OF THE OUTFLOW LEFT BY THE CARTON COUNTY
   SUPERCELL WITH THE BETTER SEVERE ENVIRONMENT ALONG AND S OF THIS
   BOUNDARY WHERE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S AMIDST MID
   60S DEWPOINTS. ANY DEVELOPMENT WITHIN THIS BETTER AIRMASS WOULD HAVE
   SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL GIVEN THE MODERATE INSTABILITY /MLCAPE
   APPROACHING 1500 J PER KG ON THE LATEST MESOANALYSIS/ AND GOOD BULK
   SHEAR /GREATER THAN 40 KT PER THE DLH VAD/. THE APPROACHING COLD
   FRONT IS THE MOST LIKELY IMPETUS FOR THIS DEVELOPMENT WITH RECENT
   STORM INITIATION NOTED IN OTTER TAIL...WADENA...AND CASS COUNTIES.
   GIVEN THIS APPROACHING BOUNDARY AND AT LEAST A COUPLE OF HOURS
   BEFORE THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING STABILIZES THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER...SOME ISOLATED SEVERE IS STILL POSSIBLE.

   ..MOSIER.. 08/08/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   45869513 47739370 47739089 45859245 45869513 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2015
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