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Mesoscale Discussion 1649
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0517 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SWRN INTO CNTRL/S CNTRL KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 312217Z - 312315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...80 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY
   OF AN ADDITIONAL SEVERE WEATHER WATCH...WHICH COULD BECOME NECESSARY
   WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO.  SEVERE WIND GUSTS LIKELY WILL BECOME
   THE PRIMARY HAZARD WITH ANY SUBSTANTIVE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT THROUGH 00-03Z.

   DISCUSSION...ATTEMPTS AT SUSTAINED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
   NOW APPEAR UNDERWAY ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE SOUTHWARD ADVANCING
   COLD FRONT...FROM NEAR RUSSELL WEST SOUTHWESTWARD TO A WEAK SURFACE
   LOW WHERE IT INTERSECTS THE DRYLINE EAST OF GARDEN CITY. 
   STRONG/DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING AND MIXING HAS YIELDED MODERATELY
   LARGE CAPE ON THE ORDER OF 2000 J/KG...BUT THIS IS GENERALLY BENEATH
   VERY WARM AND STRONGLY CAPPING ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ADVECTING
   EAST OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.  ON THE SOUTHERNMOST FRINGE OF A
   SEASONABLY STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET NOW TURNING EAST OF THE
   NORTH CENTRAL ROCKIES...IT DOES APPEAR POSSIBLE THAT FORCING COULD
   WEAKEN CAPPING SUFFICIENTLY TO ALLOW INTENSIFYING STORM DEVELOPMENT
   THIS EVENING.  IF THIS OCCURS...SEVERE HAIL MAY BE POSSIBLE
   INITIALLY.  HOWEVER...THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES APPEAR VERY FAVORABLE
   FOR STRONG DOWNBURSTS...AND STRONG COLD POOL DEVELOPMENT WHICH COULD
   SUPPORT UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH.  AIDED BY SOUTHWESTERLY LOW-LEVEL
   JET STRENGTHENING /40-50+ KT AT 850 MB/...POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS SHOULD BECOME THE MORE PROMINENT THREAT DURING THE EVENING
   HOURS.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38320058 38769932 38939718 37809724 37129947 37520057
               38320058 

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Page last modified: August 31, 2014
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