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Mesoscale Discussion 1649
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1649
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0807 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...FAR SE MT...WRN SD...NE WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481...

   VALID 090107Z - 090200Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 481
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SUPERCELLS CONTINUE ACROSS ERN PENNINGTON AND WRN HAAKON
   COUNTIES IN CNTRL SD. SEVERE THREAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CNTRL SD AS
   THESE STORMS PROGRESS SEWD WHILE WANING ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS A PAIR OF SUPERCELLS MOVING
   ACROSS ERN PENNINGTON AND WRN HAAKON COUNTIES IN CNTRL SD.
   PENNINGTON COUNTY SUPERCELL RECENT REPORTED A 72 MPH GUST. SWWD
   PROGRESSING OUTFLOW APPEARS TO HAVE MOVED THROUGH HAAKON COUNTY WITH
   THE MOST RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING THE STORM/S OUTFLOW IS
   BEGINNING TO OUTRUN THE STORM. A SIMILAR FATE MAY OCCUR WITH THE
   PENNINGTON COUNTY SUPERCELL SHORTLY.  REGARDLESS...AT LEAST SOME
   DOWNSTREAM SEVERE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THREAT IS EXPECTED AS THESE
   STORMS CONTINUE SEWD INTO AN ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY
   TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S WITH
   MLCAPE ESTIMATED NEAR 1500 J PER KG.

   FARTHER W...OUTFLOW FROM THE SUPERCELLS HAS HELPED STABILIZE MUCH OF
   THE ENVIRONMENT WITH RECENT RADAR IMAGERY SUGGESTING MOSTLY ELEVATED
   STORMS. THE ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS PLUS THE UNFAVORABLE
   ENVIRONMENT SAMPLED BY THE 00Z RAP SOUNDING SUGGESTS LITTLE SEVERE
   THREAT REMAINS ACROSS MUCH OF SE MT...NE WY...AND W-CNTRL SD.

   ..MOSIER.. 08/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...UNR...BYZ...

   LAT...LON   43810597 45530596 44940152 43210151 43810597 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2015
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