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Mesoscale Discussion 1650
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0836 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN NEB...NERN KS...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 090136Z - 090330Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE THIS
   EVENING INITIALLY OVER SERN NEB...BUT EVENTUALLY INTO SWRN IA AND
   POSSIBLY NERN KS AND NWRN MO. ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   AND SOME HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS. TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED...AND A WW ISSUANCE MIGHT BE NEEDED IF STORMS BEGIN TO
   SHOW SIGNS OF BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS HAVE INITIATED OVER SERN NEB WITH A FEW
   SHOWERS ALSO INCREASING OVER SWRN IA. THIS ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
   DEVELOPING IN RESPONSE TO ASCENT RESULTING FROM A STRENGTHENING SWLY
   LLJ THAT IS INTERACTING WITH A NW-SE ORIENTED BAROCLINIC ZONE. RUC
   ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A WEAK VORT MAX CRESTING UPPER RIDGE AND
   MOVING EWD THROUGH CNTRL NEB. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS AND 00Z RAOB DATA
   SHOW THE ATMOSPHERE TO BE MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN THIS REGION.
   HOWEVER BOTH THE 00Z OMAHA AND TOPEKA RAOBS SHOW CAPPING INVERSIONS
   THAT ALSO INDICATE SFC-BASED CONVECTIVE INHIBITION WILL INCREASE
   SUBSTANTIALLY WITH ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. STORMS THAT ARE NOW
   DEVELOPING OVER SERN NEB ARE PROBABLY ELEVATED ABOVE THE INVERSION
   WHICH LOWERS CONFIDENCE THAT THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE ABLE TO TAP INTO
   THE HIGHER THETA-E AIR CLOSER TO THE SFC LAYER. NEVERTHELESS STORMS
   MIGHT EVENTUALLY CONSOLIDATE INTO AN MCS WITH AN ATTENDANT COLD POOL
   WHICH COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR A DAMAGING WIND THREAT.

   TOP VWP SHOWS FAIRLY LARGE 0-1 KM HODOGRAPHS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   STRENGTHENING LLJ. WHILE DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL WIND PROFILES WITH
   35-40 KT 0-6 KM SHEAR SUGGESTS SOME SUPERCELL STRUCTURES WILL BE
   POSSIBLE EARLY IN THE INITIATION ZONE...PRIMARY TREND SHOULD BE FORE
   STORMS TO MERGE AND CONSOLIDATE. THIS ALONG WITH THE LIKELY SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS SUGGEST TORNADO THREAT SHOULD REMAIN
   SOMEWHAT LIMITED...THROUGH A TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

   ..DIAL/THOMPSON.. 08/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   40089485 39719640 41079654 41699521 41049359 40449369
               40089485 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2015
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