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Mesoscale Discussion 1650
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1650
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0544 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL AND ERN MN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 312244Z - 010015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...SOME INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IS
   POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING. THE MAGNITUDE OF THE SEVERE THREAT IS
   UNCERTAIN...BUT WW ISSUANCE WILL BE CONSIDERED IF MORE ORGANIZED
   CONVECTION DEVELOPS OR MOVES INTO THE REGION.

   DISCUSSION...AT 2230Z...SFC LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SERN
   MANITOBA...WITH A TRAILING COLD FRONT ARCING SWWD NEAR A
   BDE-BRD-RWF-FSD LINE ACROSS CNTRL INTO SWRN MN. THE PREFRONTAL
   AIRMASS HAS BEEN SLOW TO DESTABILIZE FOR MUCH OF THE DAY DUE TO A
   PLUME OF MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS...BUT SOME CLEARING HAS ALLOWED
   TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE 75-85F RANGE...RESULTING IN MODERATE MLCAPE
   OF 1000-2000 J/KG PER RECENT MESOANALYSIS. 

   TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY INITIATED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS
   CASS/TODD/STEARNS COUNTIES IN MN...BUT THUS FAR THIS ACTIVITY HAS
   BEEN RELATIVELY WEAK AND IS LIKELY BEING INHIBITED SOMEWHAT BY ONLY
   MODEST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT.
   HOWEVER...AS STRONGER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER SYSTEM OVER
   THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS OVERSPREADS THE REGION INTO THE EVENING...MORE
   ROBUST CONVECTION IS POSSIBLE...EVOLVING OUT OF ONGOING FRONTAL
   ACTIVITY AND/OR MOVING INTO THE REGION FROM NWRN IA. EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   OF 30-40 KTS IS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORM STRUCTURES WITH A
   THREAT OF DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL...WITH A TORNADO POSSIBLE WITH ANY
   DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT CAN EVOLVE. 

   WITH THE STRONGEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND LLJ LIKELY TO REMAIN SOUTH
   OF THE REGION THIS EVENING...IT IS UNCLEAR IF AN ORGANIZED SEVERE
   THREAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS MN...BUT WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE IF AN
   UPTICK IN COVERAGE AND ORGANIZATION IS OBSERVED.

   ..DEAN/EDWARDS.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FSD...

   LAT...LON   43539647 44839534 45769491 47059432 48189405 47959235
               46319274 45339293 44659310 44129356 43549454 43539647 

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