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Mesoscale Discussion 1651
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0607 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...NERN KS...ERN NEB...WRN AND CNTRL IA...NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 479...

   VALID 312307Z - 010030Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 479 CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THE RISK FOR SEVERE WIND GUSTS...AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
   TORNADOES...WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.
    TRENDS ARE BEING MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ADDITIONAL
   WATCH EAST OF WW 479 WITHIN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE FRONTAL LIFT AND FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A
   STRONG CYCLONIC MID/UPPER JET NOW NOSING EAST OF THE CENTRAL
   ROCKIES...THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SEEM LIKELY TO SUPPORT
   CONTINUING UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH ACROSS THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  THIS SHOULD BE AIDED BY NEAR SURFACE STORM
   INFLOW OF MODERATELY LARGE CAPE...IN THE PRESENCE OF 30-50 KT
   SOUTHWESTERLY LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC FLOW...WHICH IS EXPECTED TO
   EVENTUALLY YIELD A MORE SUBSTANTIVE RISK FOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS
   THROUGH THE 00-02Z TIME FRAME.  SEVERE WIND POTENTIAL...AND THE RISK
   FOR TORNADOES...MAY BECOME MOST PRONOUNCED WHERE THE EVOLVING SQUALL
   LINE ADVANCES ACROSS A REMNANT SURFACE BOUNDARY/EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT
   STILL EVENT IN SURFACE DATA NEAR OMAHA SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE ST.
   JOSEPH/KANSAS CITY MO AREAS.

   ..KERR.. 08/31/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...FSD...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   42389596 42969519 42779353 41219345 39409507 38939600
               39239737 40429667 41509627 42389596 

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