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Mesoscale Discussion 1651
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1651
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1111 PM CDT SAT AUG 08 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...EXTREME SERN NEB...SWRN IA AND NWRN MO

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...

   VALID 090411Z - 090545Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND AND MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW HOURS. A BRIEF TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR MAINLY WITH STORM OVER EXTREME EXTREME NWRN
   MO.

   DISCUSSION...CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PERSISTS FROM
   EXTREME SERN NEB INTO SWRN IA AND NWRN MO. STRONGEST STORMS ARE
   ALONG THE SERN NEB AND NWRN MO BORDER WHERE ACCESS TO THE MOIST AND
   UNSTABLE INFLOW FROM THE WARM SECTOR IS RELATIVELY UNIMPEDED. TOPEKA
   VWP SHOWS THE LLJ HAS STRENGTHENED TO 40 KT WITH 400 M2/S2 0-1 KM
   STORM RELATIVE HELICITY. HOWEVER...NEAR SFC INVERSION HAS INCREASED
   AND SUGGESTS THE EFFECTIVE HELICITY IS LESS THAN WHAT IS INDICATED
   IN THE 0-1 KM LAYER...AND THE STABILIZING SFC LAYER SHOULD CONTINUE
   TO LIMIT OVERALL TORNADO THREAT. NEVERTHELESS...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   REMAINS SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING EWD THROUGH THE EARLY
   MORNING WITHIN WARM ADVECTION REGIME POSING A THREAT FOR MAINLY
   ISOLATED STRONG TO DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT FEW
   HOURS.

   ..DIAL.. 08/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DMX...EAX...OAX...TOP...

   LAT...LON   39979536 40099593 40789610 41299419 41169338 40069356
               39979536 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2015
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