Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1652
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1652 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1652
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 AM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHERN MISSOURI AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN IOWA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482...

   VALID 090637Z - 090800Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 482
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL CONTINUES IN STRONGEST STORMS WITH AT
   LEAST SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS STILL
   POSSIBLE TONIGHT...MAINLY NEAR OR JUST SOUTH OF THE MISSOURI/IOWA
   BORDER AREA.  IT IS NOT CERTAIN THAT A NEW WATCH WILL BE NEEDED...
   BUT IT IS POSSIBLE THAT WATCH 482 COULD BE LOCALLY EXTENDED IN TIME
   AND AREA...ACROSS PARTS OF NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI AND ADJACENT SOUTH
   CENTRAL IOWA.

   DISCUSSION...VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT PERSISTS WITHIN A ZONE
   OF ENHANCED LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...NEAR THE NOSE OF
   A MODEST /30-40+ KT/ SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB JET EXTENDING ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY.  TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   ARE RELATIVELY WARM AND MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ARE NOT PARTICULARLY
   STEEP...BUT HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IN LOWER LEVELS APPEARS TO BE
   CONTRIBUTING TO MODERATELY LARGE CAPE.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR REMAINS
   SUFFICIENTLY STRONG FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS...WITH LIGHT EASTERLY NEAR
   SURFACE FLOW VEERING TO WESTERLY AT 30 KT OR SO AROUND 500 MB...NEAR
   THE MISSOURI/IOWA BORDER AREA.  

   WITHIN THIS REGIME...ON THE PERIPHERY OF PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING CENTERED OVER TEXAS...FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK
   MID-LEVEL IMPULSE MAY BE ENHANCING CONVECTION.  THE EVOLUTION OF A
   BETTER ORGANIZED MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WITH A
   DEEPENING/STRENGTHENING SURFACE COLD POOL THROUGH THE 07-10Z TIME
   FRAME STILL DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION.  THIS COULD BE
   ACCOMPANIED BY AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
   SURFACE GUSTS AS ACTIVITY SPREADS EAST SOUTHEASTWARD WITH
   LARGE-SCALE FORCING...TOWARD AREAS NORTH THROUGH WEST OF KIRKSVILLE
   MO.

   ..KERR.. 08/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...DVN...DMX...EAX...OAX...

   LAT...LON   41169610 41379479 40629175 39579180 39559333 39909443
               40269531 41169610 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 09, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities