MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0929 PM CDT THU JUL 23 2009
   
   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN ND / NWRN MN
   
   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615...
   
   VALID 240229Z - 240330Z
   
   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 615
   CONTINUES.
   
   ISOLATED LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
   SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS PARTS OF SERN ND AND NWRN MN.
   
   02Z SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT BEGINNING TO SURGE SWD
   ACROSS THE NRN COUPLE TIERS OF COUNTIES IN ND AND BEGINNING TO MOVE
   INTO PARTS OF NWRN MN.  A NARROW THETA-E AXIS EXTENDS NEWD FROM NERN
   SD INTO NWRN MN.  AREAS TO THE E /ROX TO DTL VICINITY/ ARE MARKEDLY
   COOLER WITH TEMPS ONLY IN THE LOWER 70S...PARTIALLY INHIBITED BY
   CLOUD COVER DURING PEAK HEATING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  AN
   INSTABILITY GRADIENT/WARM FRONT RESIDES ALONG THIS GENERAL
   CORRIDOR...WHERE UNCERTAINTY INCREASES WITH HOW FAR EAST THE SEVERE
   THREAT WILL GO INTO PARTS OF NRN MN.  WITH THAT SAID...VEERING SLY
   TO WNWLY 0-3 KM WINDS BENEATH STRONG NWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE
   TO SUPPORT STORM ORGANIZATION.  WITH INCREASING LARGE SCALE ASCENT
   DUE IN PART TO RAPIDLY APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND 40 KT SWLY
   H85 MOIST FEED INTO AREA...WILL CONTINUE TO CONTRIBUTE FAVORABLY TO
   ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT/MAINTENANCE.  WITH MUCAPES ON THE ORDER
   OF 2000 J/KG /PER INL 00Z RAOB/ ACROSS ERN PORTIONS OF THE
   DISCUSSION AREA WITHIN MORE THAN ADEQUATELY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT...WILL PROMOTE CONTINUED UPSCALE GROWTH INTO A ESEWD
   MOVING STRONG/SEVERE CLUSTER FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS CAPABLE OF ISOLD
   LARGE HAIL/STRONG-SEVERE WIND GUSTS.
   
   ..SMITH.. 07/24/2009
   
   
   ATTN...WFO...DLH...FGF...
   
   LAT...LON   46049593 46189790 47039770 48359627 48769564 48589433
               47899396 46969425 46389516 46049593