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Mesoscale Discussion 1653
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1653
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0105 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD...NORTHEAST
   NEB...AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY 

   VALID 091805Z - 092000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...95 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY
   AROUND MID-AFTERNOON ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST SD...WITH
   ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST.  DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL WILL THE PRIMARY THREATS.  WW ISSUANCE WILL BE LIKELY BY
   MID-AFTERNOON.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY AFTERNOON SURFACE ANALYSES AND TRENDS IN VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATED A CONVECTIVELY ENHANCED COLD FRONT WAS
   CONTINUING TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN INTO
   EAST-CENTRAL SD WHERE IT INTERSECTED AN EASTWARD-MOVING PRE-FRONTAL
   TROUGH NEAR HURON SD.  CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN VICINITY OF THIS COLD
   FRONT AND THE TRAILING BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD TO NEAR
   ONL...AND THEN SWWD TO SOUTHWEST NEB HAD BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
   ENHANCED CU/OCCASIONAL TCU/CBS NEAR THESE BOUNDARIES AND
   INTERSECTION POINT.  THE VERY MOIST WARM SECTOR /SURFACE DEW POINTS
   AROUND 70 F/ AND SURFACE HEATING HAS RESULTED IN MODERATE
   INSTABILITY...THUS FAR.

   MEANWHILE...PERSISTENT TSTMS SPREADING TO THE EAST ACROSS
   NORTH-CENTRAL SD AND MORE RECENTLY FORMING ISOLATED STORMS IN
   SOUTHWEST SD APPEAR TO BE ATTENDANT TO THE LEADING EXTENT OF
   STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH AN EASTWARD-MOVING SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH.  THIS DEEP-LAYER ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO REACH A HURON TO
   CHAMBERLAIN SD LINE BY 20-21Z...SUPPORTING AN INCREASE IN TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT.  40-KT WLY MIDLEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THIS SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH ARE ALREADY SPREADING EAST ACROSS SD...RESULTING IN AN
   INCREASE IN BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WITH ACTIVITY
   EXPECTED TO DEVELOP/MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST IN VICINITY OF THE MID-MO
   VALLEY.

   ..PETERS/GUYER.. 08/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42999992 44649864 45019814 44779716 44139617 43589552
               43149555 42469561 41869582 41579631 41539764 42379992
               42999992 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2015
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