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Mesoscale Discussion 1654
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1654
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF CNTRL AND ERN KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480...

   VALID 010502Z - 010630Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 480
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT A NEW SEVERE
   WEATHER WATCH WILL BE NEEDED BEFORE THE CURRENTLY SCHEDULED 06Z
   WATCH EXPIRATION.

   DISCUSSION...THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET IS REACHING
   PEAK INTENSITY /50-60+/...AND ENHANCEMENT OF WARM ADVECTION...WITHIN
   THE LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC BAROCLINIC ZONE ON THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY
   OF UPPER TROUGHING SPREADING ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS ...IS
   MAINTAINING VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT NORTH OF GREAT BEND INTO
   AREAS SOUTH OF EMPORIA.  THE REAR/WESTERN EDGE OF STRONGER ACTIVITY
   IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE GRADUALLY SHIFTING EAST SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS
   CENTRAL AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS THROUGH THE 06-09Z TIME
   FRAME...AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET VEERS.  WDSS-II MESH DATA SUGGESTS THAT
   STRONGER ACTIVITY MAY STILL BE PRODUCING MARGINALLY SEVERE
   HAIL...AIDED BY STRONG SHEAR IN THE CLOUD-BEARING LAYER...AND THE
   CONTINUING PRESENCE OF STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.  EVEN THOUGH
   ACTIVITY IS GENERALLY ROOTED ABOVE A STABLE SURFACE-BASED LAYER TO
   THE NORTH OF THE CONGLOMERATE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY/SURFACE FRONT...IT
   DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT HEAVY PRECIPITATION LOADING
   AND DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER MAY STILL CONTRIBUTE TO OCCASIONAL
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS THAT COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

   ..KERR.. 09/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...SGF...EAX...TOP...ICT...DDC...

   LAT...LON   38949825 39009710 38789557 38169472 37599508 37309653
               37529784 37699880 38079933 38579938 38949825 

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Page last modified: September 01, 2014
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