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Mesoscale Discussion 1655
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0403 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...CENTRAL AND EASTERN SD/NORTHEAST NEB/SOUTHWEST
   MN/NORTHWEST IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

   VALID 092103Z - 092300Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LIKELY ACROSS WW 483 DURING THE REST
   OF THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE EASTERN HALF OF
   SD...NORTHEAST NEB AND SOUTHWEST MN.  EVENTUAL CLUSTERING OF STORMS
   CONTINUES TO BE EXPECTED BY 00-01Z ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD...WITH
   ACTIVITY SPREADING ACROSS SOUTHWEST MN AND NORTHEAST NEB INTO
   NORTHWEST IA.

   DISCUSSION...ADDITIONAL SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WITHIN A
   RATHER MOIST AIR MASS BENEATH STEEPENING MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES PER
   OBJECTIVE ANALYSES HAS RESULTED IN FURTHER DESTABILIZATION WITH
   MLCAPE OF 1500-2500 J/KG.  THIS COMBINED WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR
   EXCEEDING 35-40 KT AND DEEP-LAYER ASCENT SPREADING TO THE EAST WITH
   THE PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO
   SUPPORT TSTM DEVELOPMENT/FURTHER INTENSIFICATION IN VICINITY OF
   SURFACE BOUNDARIES WITHIN WW 483.

   18Z/19Z HRRR DATA CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STORMS SHOULD EVOLVE INTO A
   CLUSTER ACROSS SOUTHEAST SD BY 00-01Z WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   SPREADING TO THE SOUTHEAST THROUGH SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHEAST NEB INTO
   NORTHWEST IA.

   ..PETERS.. 08/09/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   45539962 45689823 44959644 44269533 43749516 42249546
               41989641 41879804 42090003 42950028 43160098 44320091
               45539962 

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Page last modified: August 09, 2015
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