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Mesoscale Discussion 1655
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1655
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1116 AM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...MI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 011616Z - 011745Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED TO PERHAPS SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING
   DAMAGING WINDS MAY INCREASE ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
   LOWER MI AND THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE UPPER PENINSULA THIS
   AFTERNOON. A WATCH IS POSSIBLE IF THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT BECOMES
   MORE CERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONGER CONVECTION HAVE RECENTLY
   DEVELOPED ACROSS NRN LAKE MI AND WESTERN LOWER MI WITHIN A
   PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH DEVELOPING EWD. THE AIRMASS TO THE EAST OF THE
   ONGOING STORMS HAS MOISTENED SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING WITH SURFACE
   DEWPOINT TEMPS CLIMBING 1-2F PER HOUR SINCE AROUND 12Z. GENERALLY
   WEAK/MOIST MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES EVIDENT IN APX MORNING SOUNDING MAY
   BE SOMEWHAT OFFSET BY THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTENING...AS WELL AS
   SURFACE HEATING TAKING PLACE AHEAD OF THE EXTENSIVE
   CLOUDS/PRECIPITATION ASSOCIATED WITH THE PREFRONTAL TROUGH AND COLD
   FRONT FARTHER WEST. LIFT ACROSS THE REGION WILL BE SUPPORTED BY
   MODEST HEIGHT FALLS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS MID/UPPER TROUGH PIVOTS
   NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

   EXPECT RELATIVELY FAST-MOVING STORMS IN PERSISTENT CLUSTERS AND LINE
   SEGMENTS SPREADING EAST/NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION AT ABOUT
   30-40KT. POCKETS OF STRONGER DCAPE OVER CENTRAL AND NRN
   MI...INDICATED IN LATEST MESOANALYSIS DATA...COULD SUPPORT WIND
   GUSTS APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS. IF THIS TREND BEGINS TO APPEAR
   ACROSS A MORE EXTENSIVE AREA...A WATCH MAY BE NEEDED THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DTX...APX...GRR...MQT...

   LAT...LON   46078586 46578590 46698442 45858344 44448331 43808342
               43608372 43428419 43248461 43028522 42948597 43218635
               43778593 44308590 45188579 45718580 46078586 

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Page last modified: September 01, 2014
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