Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

Mesoscale Discussion 1656
< Previous MD         Next MD >
MD 1656 graphic

   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0708 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE CO...FAR NE NM...EXTREME SW KS...NW TX/OK
   PANHANDLES

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 100008Z - 100145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...TSTM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST ACROSS THE AREA FOR
   THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED COVERAGE.
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS BUT
   GENERALLY LOW COVERAGE AND MODEST INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE
   THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT RADAR IMAGERY HAS SHOWN INCREASING TSTM COVERAGE
   WITHIN THE UPSLOPE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE NRN PORTION OF THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS. THE ENVIRONMENT IS CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES IN THE
   UPPER 80S TO MID 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 60S. THESE MOIST
   CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE OVER 1500 J PER KG PER THE LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS. KPUX VAD RECENTLY SAMPLED OVER 30 KT OF 0-6 KM BULK
   SHEAR. THESE THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC CONDITIONS ARE TYPICALLY
   SUPPORTIVE OF MODEST STORM ORGANIZATION AND AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
   SEVERE THREAT ACROSS THIS REGION. ONE FACTOR MITIGATING THE
   POTENTIAL SEVERE THREAT IS RISING HEIGHTS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
   WESTWARD BUILDING SRN PLAINS HIGH. THIS LACK OF LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT
   IS EXPECTED TO TEMPER THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT...ALTHOUGH SOME
   ISOLATED SEVERE HAIL/WIND IS POSSIBLE. TRENDS ACROSS THE REGION WILL
   BE MONITORED BUT LIMITED SEVERE COVERAGE WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE THE
   NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...PUB...ABQ...

   LAT...LON   36000239 35580316 35730373 36120414 36450429 37070431
               37760422 38020396 38210356 38340286 38090222 37620174
               36890171 36000239 

Top/All Mesoscale Discussions/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: August 10, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities