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Mesoscale Discussion 1656
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1656
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0211 PM CDT WED SEP 07 2016

   AREAS AFFECTED...ND...SD

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 071911Z - 072115Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
   THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS ACROSS SCNTRL AND SE ND EXTENDING SWD
   ACROSS CNTRL AND NE SD. THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT WW ISSUANCE
   WILL BE POSSIBLE BY 22Z.

   DISCUSSION...LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS A 1010 MB LOW IN NCNTRL SD
   WITH A SFC TROUGH/WIND SHIFT EXTENDING NWWD FROM THE LOW ACROSS WRN
   ND. A MOIST AIRMASS IS IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF THE SFC LOW ACROSS
   CNTRL AND NRN SD WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F.
   FURTHER NORTH ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL ND...SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE 50S
   F. IN RESPONSE...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY HAS DEVELOPED
   ACROSS SRN AND CNTRL SD WITH WEAKER INSTABILITY IN PLACE ACROSS NRN
   SD AND IN ND. IN SPITE OF THIS...STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT IS
   PRESENT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS ASSOCIATED WITH A VORTICITY MAX
   ANALYZED JUST TO THE WEST OF BISMARCK EVIDENT ON WATER VAPOR
   IMAGERY. THIS FEATURE IS SUPPORTING A SHORT LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS
   NEAR BISMARCK. ANOTHER CONVECTIVE LINE SEGMENT IS LOCATED FURTHER TO
   TH EAST TO THE SOUTH OF JAMESTOWN ND. SHORT TERM MODEL SOLUTIONS
   INCLUDING THE HRRR GRADUALLY INCREASE CONVECTIVE COVERAGE IN THE NRN
   PLAINS WITH A LINE OF STORMS ORGANIZING BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   CNTRL AND ERN DAKOTAS.

   REGIONAL WSR-88D VWPS FOR BOTH BISMARCK ND AND ABERDEEN SD CURRENTLY
   SHOW STRONG DEEP-LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK
   CENTERED IN NRN SD. THE VWPS HAVE SUBSTANTIAL DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
   BELOW 2 KM AGL WITH 50 TO 60 KT OF SWLY FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
   MAY COMPENSATE FOR THE WEAK INSTABILITY...MAKING CONDITIONS
   FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DUE TO THE STRONG
   FORCING...A QUASI-LINEAR MCS WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED
   TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EWD INTO SE ND AND ERN SD BY LATE AFTERNOON. THE
   GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE SHOULD EXIST WITH BOWING LINE
   SEGMENTS AND ROTATING CELLS EMBEDDED IN THE QLCS. HAIL WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE QLCS.

   ..BROYLES/HART.. 09/07/2016


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...BIS...UNR...

   LAT...LON   46220046 45660023 44699997 43830000 43399962 43549875
               44519696 45499599 46769540 47609632 47769839 47490020
               47000067 46220046 

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Page last modified: September 07, 2016
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