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Mesoscale Discussion 1657
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1657
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0715 PM CDT SUN AUG 09 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SERN SD...SWRN MN...NERN NEB AND NWRN AND NCNTRL IA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483...

   VALID 100015Z - 100215Z

   THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 483
   CONTINUES.

   SUMMARY...STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS WITH A FEW
   INSTANCES OF DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL PERSIST NEXT FEW
   HOURS FROM SERN SD INTO NWRN IA AND NERN NEB WITH THREAT EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY DIMINISH OVER SWRN MN.

   DISCUSSION...EARLY THIS EVENING AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EXTENDS FROM
   SERN MN INTO EXTREME NRN IA AND THEN WNWWD INTO SERN SD AND IS
   MOVING SWD. STORMS FROM ECNTRL SD INTO SWRN MN HAVE BEEN UNDERCUT BY
   THIS BOUNDARY AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE A WEAKENING TREND.
   HOWEVER...THE DOWNSTREAM ATMOSPHERE FROM SERN SD...NERN NEB AND NWRN
   IA REMAINS MODERATELY UNSTABLE AND ONLY WEAKLY CAPPED...SUGGESTING
   STORMS WILL CONTINUE DEVELOPING ALONG THIS FEATURE...AT LEAST INTO
   THE MID EVENING. OTHER STORMS ARE FORMING ALONG AN E-W BOUNDARY FROM
   NCNTRL THROUGH NERN NEB. ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE IN A GENERAL SEWD
   DIRECTION THROUGH THE EVENING WITHIN RELATIVELY A WEAK FORCING
   REGIME INCLUDING ABSENCE OF A LLJ. THE 00Z RAOB DATA FROM OMAHA
   INDICATES AN INVERSION AROUND 750 MB...AND WHILE CONVECTIVE
   INHIBITION IS CURRENTLY MODEST...IT SHOULD GRADUALLY INCREASE WITH
   ONSET OF NOCTURNAL COOLING. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STRONG TO
   SEVERE NEXT FEW HOURS...BUT THE WEAK FORCING AND GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION SUGGEST AN OVERALL WEAKENING TREND WILL
   PROBABLY BEGIN IN THE 02-03Z TIME FRAME. 

   A STRONG STORM HAS MOVED EAST OF WW 483 INTO THE DES MOINES CWA OF
   NRN IA. HOWEVER...UNLESS IT BEGINS TO APPEAR COVERAGE OR INTENSITY
   WILL UNDERGO A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE...ANOTHER WW EAST OF CURRENT WW
   DOES NOT APPEAR NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 08/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MPX...DMX...FSD...OAX...GID...LBF...

   LAT...LON   43269821 44319683 44559582 43739437 42559374 42029527
               41709759 41719982 42430008 43269821 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2015
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