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Mesoscale Discussion 1658
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1658
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0250 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...WY...SD...NE

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 011950Z - 012115Z

   CORRECTED AREAS AFFECTED TO WY...SD...NE

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
   DEVELOP ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE
   AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE STRONGER CELLS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS
   AND SMALL HAIL BUT A WATCH IS NOT EXPECTED.

   DISCUSSION...MODEST LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN LEFT-EXIT REGION OF
   MID/UPPER JET WILL CONTINUE TO AID CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT FROM
   EASTERN WY ACROSS PARTS OF NWRN NEB AND SRN/CNTRL SD THROUGH THE
   AFTERNOON. DESPITE LIMITED MOISTURE CONTENT IN POST-FRONTAL AIRMASS
   OVER THE REGION...COOLING ALOFT AND BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/MIXING
   HAS FOSTERED A STEEPENING OF DEEP-LAYER LAPSE RATES AND CONTRIBUTED
   TO MLCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 500-1000 J/KG. GIVEN THE BACKGROUND ASCENT
   AND WEAK INHIBITION...WIDELY SCATTERED MULTICELL STORM DEVELOPMENT
   WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE. A FEW STORMS
   COULD PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS GIVEN INVERTED-V THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES AND SFC T/TD SPREADS NEARING 30F IN SOME AREAS. SMALL HAIL
   ALSO SEEMS POSSIBLE GIVEN RELATIVELY LOW FREEZING LEVELS. STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND LIMITED SEVERE RISK PRECLUDES WATCH ISSUANCE FOR
   THIS AREA.

   ..CARBIN/HART.. 09/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...FSD...ABR...LBF...UNR...CYS...

   LAT...LON   42120302 42720495 43620456 44110413 45219960 44889843
               43459859 42669978 42120302 

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Page last modified: September 01, 2014
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