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Mesoscale Discussion 1659
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0351 PM CDT MON SEP 01 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSOURI...FAR
   NORTHERN ARKANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 012051Z - 012315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE AREA IS BEING MONITORED FOR AN INCREASE IN THE SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THE ISSUANCE OF A
   WATCH IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES BOUNDARY-LAYER
   STABILIZATION HAVING OCCURRED IN THE WAKE OF EARLIER CONVECTION THAT
   CROSSED THE REGION. A DIURNALLY ENHANCED BOUNDARY-LAYER CUMULUS
   FIELD RESIDES S OF AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT IS RETREATING NWD --
   CURRENTLY INVOF THE AR/MO BORDER -- WITH STABLE WAVE CLOUD
   CONFIGURATIONS/BILLOWS NOTED FARTHER N. HOWEVER...WATER VAPOR LOOPS
   IMPLY A RIBBON OF MID-LEVEL ASCENT BEGINNING TO EMERGE OVER THE
   AREA...COMMENSURATE WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF PATCHY ACCAS ACROSS
   S-CNTRL MO. AS HIGH THETA-E S OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ASCENDS
   ISENTROPICALLY ATOP THE NWD SLOPING COOL DOME N OF THE
   BOUNDARY...AND A MODEST INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL ASCENT OCCURS...DEEPER
   CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. 

   WITH H75 LAPSE RATES AROUND 6.5-7 C/KM...MUCAPE AROUND 1500-2500
   J/KG WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ROBUST STORMS WITH 30-40 KT OF EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR SUPPORTING SUSTAINED/ORGANIZED CONVECTION...PERHAPS
   INCLUDING SUPERCELLS. STORMS MAY INITIALLY BE ELEVATED ATOP THE
   RESIDUAL COOL DOME WITH SVR HAIL BEING THE PRIMARY CONCERN.
   HOWEVER...SOME POTENTIAL FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY A TORNADO
   MAY EXIST. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE INTO THE EVENING ACROSS
   SRN MO/FAR NRN AR AS THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO RETREAT NWD
   AND EFFECTIVE INFLOW LAYERS BECOME ROOTED AT THE SFC AMIDST 100-200
   M2/S2 OF EFFECTIVE SRH. SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE
   GREATER SVR-TSTM POTENTIAL EXTENDS TO THE PROSPECTS FOR WW ISSUANCE
   IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...THOUGH WW ISSUANCE IS LIKELY BY THIS
   EVENING.

   ..COHEN/HART.. 09/01/2014


   ATTN...WFO...LSX...LZK...SGF...EAX...TSA...

   LAT...LON   36649210 36369318 36579441 37899447 38379346 38709180
               38719088 38159027 37409092 36649210 

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Page last modified: September 01, 2014
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