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Mesoscale Discussion 1659
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1659
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0121 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NORTHEAST AL...SOUTHEAST TN...AND NORTHERN GA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 101821Z - 102045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NORTHEAST AL...SOUTHEAST TN AND
   NORTHERN GA.  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM ISSUANCE IS UNLIKELY AT THIS
   TIME...THOUGH CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL BE MONITORED FOR GREATER
   COVERAGE OF STRONGER STORMS THAT COULD WARRANT CONSIDERATION FOR A
   WW.

   DISCUSSION...MOSAIC RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED AN EAST-SOUTHEAST MOVING
   MCV WHICH AT 1755Z WAS LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST AL/TN BORDER. 
   FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO THIS LOW-MID LEVEL FEATURE APPEARS
   TO BE ENHANCING UPDRAFT STRENGTH PER TRENDS IN A GOES-R CLOUD-TOP
   COOLING PRODUCT ACROSS THE EASTERN PORTION OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TN
   /COFFEE AND FRANKLIN COUNTIES/.  THIS ASCENT COMBINED WITH
   CONVERGENCE/LIFT IN VICINITY OF AN EASTWARD-MOVING BOUNDARY WHICH
   WAS ADVANCING INTO EASTERN TN...AND NORTHEAST TO CENTRAL AL...WILL
   REMAIN A FOCUS FOR NEW STORMS.  THE ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE
   DISCUSSION AREA HAS BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE
   BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK...35-40 KT SPEEDS IN THE 1-3
   KM AGL LAYER PER HTX WSR-88D COULD ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY
   STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITHIN A DOWNSTREAM ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY STEEPENING SURFACE-3 KM LAPSE RATES AND DCAPE OF
   1000-1400 J/KG.

   ..PETERS/HART.. 08/10/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...FFC...OHX...BMX...HUN...

   LAT...LON   34838622 35568562 35328465 34958404 34348388 33938411
               33568465 33648561 33888692 34418649 34838622 

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Page last modified: August 10, 2015
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