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Mesoscale Discussion 1660
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1660
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0812 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WA / NRN ID / NWRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 110112Z - 110215Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED CONVECTIVE WIND GUSTS RANGING FROM 50-70 MPH MAY
   ACCOMPANY STRONGER THUNDERSTORM CORES AND CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SEVERAL BANDS OF THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS ERN WA EWD INTO NRN ID AND A SECOND BAND LOCATED FROM WRN MT
   NWWD INTO NRN ID.  RADAR IMAGERY INDICATES SMALLER MESOSCALE
   CONVECTIVE VORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH THE BANDS LOCATED ACROSS SERN WA
   AND WRN MT AND SPATIALLY ASSOCIATED WITH A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING NWD THROUGH THE INTERIOR NW/NRN ROCKIES THIS EVENING. 
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS NEAR 90 DEG TEMPS DOWNSTREAM OF THE EXISTING
   ACTIVITY.  THE 11/00Z BOI AND TFX RAOBS SHOWS VERY DRY AND DEEP
   SUB-CLOUD LAYERS WITH A DRY ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE FROM THE SURFACE TO
   THE MID LEVELS.  MARGINAL SBCAPE /100-200 J PER KG/ AND THE LARGE
   SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE PROVING FAVORABLE FOR ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS /MEASURED 64 KT GUST AT KMSO AT 0033Z/.  EXPECTING A
   CONTINUATION OF A SEVERE WING GUST THREAT ACCOMPANYING CONVECTION
   FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS BEFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN WIND GUST
   POTENTIAL COINCIDES WITH NOCTURNAL BOUNDARY LAYER COOLING.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

   LAT...LON   46221553 46941772 48301735 48781484 48331319 47471288
               46741289 46221553 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2015
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