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Mesoscale Discussion 1661
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1661
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF ARIZONA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 111728Z - 111900Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...WITH PRIMARILY A DAMAGING
   WIND THREAT...ARE POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING.  THE THREAT IS EXPECTED TO BE TOO ISOLATED TO WARRANT A WW.

   DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED AND MOVED INTO
   PARTS OF SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL ARIZONA OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS.  SOME
   OF THESE STORMS HAVE PRODUCED STRONG/GUSTY OUTFLOWS APPROACHING
   SEVERE LIMITS...WITH 50-KNOT GUSTS REPORTED AT DVT AND FFZ WITHIN
   THE PAST HOUR.  30-40 KNOT LOW- AND MID-LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW
   NOTED ON THE VAD WIND PROFILER AT EMX IN THE PAST HOUR AMIDST WEAK
   TO MODERATE BUOYANCY SUGGESTS A CONTINUED THREAT FOR STRONG TO
   SEVERE WIND GUSTS IN/NEAR STORMS AS THAT HIGHER MOMENTUM AIR IS
   TRANSPORTED TO THE SURFACE VIA CONVECTIVE PROCESSES.  THIS THREAT
   SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A WW ISSUANCE...BUT
   CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..COOK/HART.. 08/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TWC...FGZ...PSR...VEF...

   LAT...LON   32951353 33911411 35131436 36261398 36611341 36691222
               36181100 35001012 33710963 32590999 32101118 32241256
               32531307 32951353 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2015
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