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Mesoscale Discussion 1662
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1662
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0125 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF WRN AND CENTRAL PA/NY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 021825Z - 022030Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
   A COLD FRONT. BROKEN LINES OF STORMS WILL TRACK EWD ACROSS NY/PA
   INTO THE EVENING HOURS AND MAY PRODUCE SPORADIC STRONG/LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   DISCUSSION...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE INCREASING AHEAD OF THE
   EWD ADVANCING SFC COLD FRONT FROM THE LAKES ERIE AND ONTARIO
   VICINITY SWD INTO NW PA/ERN OHIO. AS TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE
   80S ACROSS NY/PA AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE...MODEST DESTABILIZATION WILL
   CONTINUE WITH MLCAPE VALUES CURRENTLY AROUND 500-1000 J/KG. DEEP
   LAYER EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE QUITE STRONG ACROSS THE
   REGION...UPWARDS OF 40 KT...AND WILL ALLOW FOR FAST MOVING LINE
   SEGMENTS. WHILE POOR LAPSE RATES AND MODEST INSTABILITY WILL LIMIT
   VIGOROUS UPDRAFTS...FAST STORM MOTION AND PW VALUES AOA 1.5 INCHES
   MAY ALLOW FOR SPORADIC STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS...ESPECIALLY WHERE
   GREATER HEATING OCCURS IN BROKEN CLOUDINESS. TRENDS WILL BE
   MONITORED FOR POTENTIAL WATCH ISSUANCE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..LEITMAN/HART.. 09/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...BTV...ALY...BGM...BUF...CTP...LWX...PBZ...CLE...

   LAT...LON   43687645 44037562 44337466 44217409 43827367 43397366
               42757386 42047445 40627645 39777803 39637942 39818036
               40448049 41438022 41977968 42497913 43687645 

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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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