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Mesoscale Discussion 1663
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0311 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN WV...NRN/WRN VA...MD...SERN PA...WASHINGTON DC

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022011Z - 022145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SVR WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL
   INSTANCES OF HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
   MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THE
   SVR THREAT APPEAR INSUFFICIENT TO WARRANT A WW...BUT TRENDS CONTINUE
   TO BE MONITORED.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTIVE TRENDS SUGGEST A SLOW UPTICK IN TSTM
   DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS THIS
   AFTERNOON...INFLUENCED BY LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. 
   SFC OBS FROM 20Z INDICATE GENERALLY WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
   AMIDST NEARLY UNIFORM SWLY FLOW...WITH EXCEPTION TO A MORE
   SUBSTANTIAL SLY COMPONENT NOTED OVER NW VA AND CNTRL MD...INVOF A
   STRONG TSTM LOCATED NW OF WASHINGTON DC. RICH BOUNDARY LAYER
   MOISTURE AMIDST STRONG HEATING /TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S-LOW 90S F/
   IS YIELDING MLCAPE VALUES OF 1000-1500 J/KG...AND COMBINED WITH
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES ESTIMATED AT 25-35 KT...THE ENVIRONMENT
   REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED TSTM CLUSTERS AND PERHAPS BRIEFLY
   ORGANIZED DISCRETE STRUCTURES TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING. PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE ISOLATED STRONG-SVR WIND
   GUSTS...WITH A LESSER THREAT FOR HAIL. COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THESE
   THREATS IS CURRENTLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN INSUFFICIENT FOR WW
   ISSUANCE...BUT CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 09/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...PHI...AKQ...CTP...LWX...RNK...PBZ...RLX...JKL...

   LAT...LON   39737809 39927734 40367611 40287590 40007567 39697587
               39067651 37957791 37937805 37517979 37318040 37268165
               37548209 37888208 38178139 38668002 39097972 39637908
               39737809 

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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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