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Mesoscale Discussion 1663
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1663
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0508 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...NRN ID / WRN MT

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112208Z - 112315Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING.  LOW SPATIAL COVERAGE/MAGNITUDE OF THREAT WILL
   PRECLUDE A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...SURFACE CONDITIONS OVER WRN MT HAVE WARMED TO NEAR 90
   DEG F AND TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS ARE NOW IN THE 40-45 DEG RANGE. 
   VERY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SAMPLED BY THE 12Z BOI AND TFX
   RAOBS ARE CONTRIBUTING TO WEAK BUOYANCY.  THE INVERTED-V PROFILES
   /NEAR DRY ADIABATIC 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES/ WILL SUPPORT A FEW
   MICROBURSTS WITH THE LARGER CORES AS THEY DEVELOP NWD INVOF THE
   ID/MT BORDER.  THE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS MAY OCCASIONALLY YIELD
   POCKETS OF HIGHER GUSTS AND POTENTIALLY BE CAPABLE OF 50-65 MPH
   WINDS.

   ..SMITH/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...TFX...MSO...OTX...

   LAT...LON   45491438 46051547 47431538 47801441 47801320 47061236
               45701256 45491438 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2015
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