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Mesoscale Discussion 1664
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0349 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...SRN/ERN KY...MIDDLE/ERN TN...FAR SWRN VA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 022049Z - 022145Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE SLOWLY INCREASING ACROSS PARTS OF
   CNTRL/ERN KY AND MIDDLE TN...ALONG WITH AN ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR
   STRONG TO SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO ERN PORTIONS OF
   KY/TN AND FAR SWRN VA. WW ISSUANCE IS POSSIBLE.

   DISCUSSION...VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW SEVERAL BANDS OF
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ORIENTED FROM NRN MIDDLE TN ENEWD ACROSS ERN
   KY INTO SRN WV. MORE RECENT TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS ONGOING OVER NWRN TN
   INVOF AN AGITATED CU FIELD. THIS ACTIVITY IS OCCURRING ALONG THE SRN
   FRINGE OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE UPPER
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES...AND AS A RESULT...DEEP-LAYER
   WINDS ARE COMPARATIVELY WEAKER THAN AREAS TO THE N. HOWEVER...THE
   AIR MASS IS VERY MOIST /E.G. PW VALUES OF APPROACHING 2 INCHES/ AND
   WEAKLY CAPPED...AND CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST A SEMI-CONTINUOUS
   CONVECTIVE LINE WILL PROGRESS EWD THROUGH THIS EVENING. STRONG
   HEATING AND RESULTANT STEEPENING LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL SUPPORT
   AT LEAST LOCALIZED SVR WIND GUSTS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING. AS SUCH...CONVECTIVE TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
   MONITORED FOR INCREASING SVR WIND POTENTIAL...WHICH MAY REQUIRE WW
   ISSUANCE.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 09/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...RNK...RLX...MRX...JKL...LMK...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   37238172 36248310 35648476 35448659 35488807 35778843
               36138831 36478711 37128568 37648506 38018393 38008352
               37858258 37238172 

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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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