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Mesoscale Discussion 1664
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0540 PM CDT TUE AUG 11 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 112240Z - 112345Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
   HOUR OR TWO AS TSTM ACTIVITY CONTINUES SWWD. LIMITED SPATIAL
   COVERAGE AND GENERALLY SUB-SEVERE WINDS PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...RECENT OBSERVATION /2154Z/ AT DWH REPORTED A WIND GUST
   OF 52 KT AS OUTFLOW FROM A COLLAPSING TSTM MOVED THROUGH. KHGX RADAR
   IMAGERY SHOWS NUMEROUS BOUNDARIES INCLUDING A WELL-DEFINED OUTFLOW
   BOUNDARY MOVING SWWD FROM WALLER TO CHAMBERS COUNTIES AND A SEA
   BREEZE MOVING NWD THROUGH FORT BEND...HARRIS...AND CHAMBERS.
   ENVIRONMENT N OF THE SEA BREEZE AND WEST OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS
   CHARACTERIZED BY TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 TO 105 DEF G AND DEWPOINTS
   IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THESE CONDITIONS ARE SUPPORTING MLCAPE
   AROUND 1500 J/KG AND DCAPE AROUND 1400 J/PG...PER THE LATEST
   MESOANALYSIS. GIVEN THESE CONDITIONS...SOME GUSTY WINDS ARE
   POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY AS TSTMS COLLAPSE. GENERALLY LIMITED SVR
   THREAT IS EXPECTED TO PRECLUDE THE NEED FOR A WW.

   ..MOSIER/THOMPSON.. 08/11/2015


   ATTN...WFO...LCH...HGX...

   LAT...LON   30089613 30249584 30109476 30089460 29969403 29769386
               29609428 29529450 29329488 29319531 29499578 29809623
               30089613 

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Page last modified: August 11, 2015
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