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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1664
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0720 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...EASTERN IA/NORTHERN IL/FAR SOUTHWEST WI
CONCERNING...TORNADO WATCH 619...
VALID 250020Z - 250145Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR TORNADO WATCH 619 CONTINUES.
TORNADO WATCH 619 CONTINUES UNTIL 04Z ACROSS EASTERN IA/NORTHWEST IL
AND ADJACENT FAR SOUTHWEST WI...WITH CONTINUED POTENTIAL FOR LARGE
HAIL/DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO.
CENTERED ALONG THE MS RIVER...SCATTERED/MODESTLY DISCRETE SUPERCELLS
CONTINUE TO SPREAD SOUTHEASTWARD OVER NORTHEAST/EAST CENTRAL IA AND
FAR NORTHWEST IL AS OF 00Z. LARGE HAIL/BOUTS OF DAMAGING WINDS HAVE
BEEN COMMON OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
DOES CONTINUE...MAINLY WITH QUASI-DISCRETE STORMS INTERACTING WITH
THE ROUGHLY NNW-SSE EFFECTIVE WARM FRONT/PRIOR OUTFLOW ACROSS FAR
EASTERN IA/FAR NORTHWEST IL. HOWEVER...CURRENT TRENDS SUGGEST STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO CONGEAL/GROW UPSCALE THROUGH EARLY EVENING...WITH
SOUTHWARD PROPAGATION ACROSS EASTERN IA AND NORTHWEST/NORTH CENTRAL
IL. ALONG WITH CONTINUED SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL...DAMAGING WINDS MAY
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH FORWARD PROPAGATION AIDED BY
A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS DOWNSTREAM AND RELATIVELY STRONG
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT /40 KT PER 00Z DAVENPORT RAOB/ WITH
SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER. AN ADDITIONAL WATCH COULD
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL IL/SOUTHEAST IA.
OTHERWISE...IN THE WAKE OF THIS ACTIVITY...A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY
ATTEMPT TO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ALONG THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
NORTHEAST IA/SOUTHEAST MN INTO SOUTHERN WI. HOWEVER...A CONVECTIVELY
AIRMASS AND/OR MODEST BUOYANCY/MODEST CONVERGENCE SUGGESTS ANY
SEVERE THREAT WILL BE MARGINAL/ISOLATED IN NATURE.
..GUYER.. 07/25/2009
ATTN...WFO...LOT...ILX...MKX...DVN...ARX...DMX...
LAT...LON 43109228 43379150 42679018 42338903 41828872 40558879
40448996 41129188 43109228
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