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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0852 PM CDT FRI JUL 24 2009
AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF EXTREME NERN CO / SWRN NEB
CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY
VALID 250152Z - 250245Z
THE THREAT FOR ISOLD STRONG/SEVERE WIND GUSTS MAY PERSIST FOR THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO WITH TSTM CLUSTER OVER THE SRN NEB PANHANDLE AND
EXTREME NERN CO. THIS COMPLEX IS EXTRAPOLATED TO MOVE SEWD INTO
SWRN NEB OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH A GRADUAL WANING IN
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE CONVECTIVE GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE.
RECENT SURFACE MESOANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT DRAPED FROM NEAR LNK
TO IML EXTENDING WNWWD TO CYS. THIS FRONT IS MOVING SWD AROUND 20
KTS. RADAR MOSAIC LOOP SHOWS TSTM CLUSTER EMANATING FROM SERN WY
MOVING SEWD AND GENERALLY JUST NORTH AND PARALLELING AFOREMENTIONED
BOUNDARY BASED ON THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS. THIS TSTM CLUSTER WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO FAVOR A SEWD MOTION WHERE DEEPER FRONTAL LIFT IS
SUSTAINING FORCED ASCENT FOR PARCEL/S TO ATTAIN THEIR LFC.
MODIFYING LBF 00Z RAOB FOR LOWER 80S TEMPS WITH LOWER 60S DEWPOINTS
YIELDS SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE-BASED CINH BUT STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATE
PLUME FROM THE W WILL CONTINUE TO AID TSTM VIGOR. WITH SUBSTANTIAL
CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR DESPITE AN EVENTUAL TRANSITION TO ELEVATED
CONVECTION WITH TIME...STORMS MAY CONTINUE TO POSE AN ISOLD
WIND/LARGE HAIL THREAT FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR SO AND THEREAFTER
PERHAPS POSING ONLY AN ISOLD LARGE HAIL THREAT.
..SMITH.. 07/25/2009
ATTN...WFO...GID...LBF...GLD...BOU...
LAT...LON 40020035 40180152 40840263 41100244 41440223 41400172
40970059 40539982 40259978 39960008 40020035
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