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Mesoscale Discussion 1665
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1665
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0108 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...MUCH OF FLORIDA AND FAR SOUTHERN GEORGIA

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 121808Z - 122015Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH STRONG
   STORMS THAT ARE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA. A WW WILL
   LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR THIS THREAT.

   DISCUSSION...CONVECTION HAS GRADUALLY DEVELOPED AND INTENSIFIED OVER
   THE PAST HOUR OR SO ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA.  THIS TREND SHOULD
   CONTINUE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS CONTINUED INSOLATION RESULTS IN
   GRADUALLY INCREASING INSTABILITY AND GUST FRONT/SEA BREEZE
   INTERACTIONS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  SHEAR IS
   NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE FOR WELL-ORGANIZED ACTIVITY...BUT MLCAPE
   VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG WILL SUPPORT SPORADIC WIND GUSTS IN/NEAR
   THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE OR BRIEFLY APPROACH
   SEVERE LIMITS.  THE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE
   THE NEED FOR A WW ISSUANCE...AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD WEAKEN SOME
   AFTER SUNSET DUE TO THE LOSS OF INSOLATION/WEAKENING INSTABILITY.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 08/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...MLB...TBW...JAX...TAE...

   LAT...LON   30238418 30528399 30888333 31128254 31208191 31088155
               30658137 30028124 29328104 28598108 27648138 27118146
               26978176 27098219 27498255 28078265 28678257 29208281
               29568331 29938370 30118411 30188420 30238418 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2015
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