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Mesoscale Discussion 1666
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1666
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0247 PM CDT Fri Sep 22 2017

   Areas affected...Southern High Plains

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 221947Z - 222215Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A couple of thunderstorms may develop during the next
   couple of hours across the area. Gusty thunderstorm winds and maybe
   some hail will be possible with these storms.

   DISCUSSION...Visible satellite imagery depicts increasing ascent, as
   evidenced by deepening cumulus, along a narrow convergence zone
   stretching from just west of Amarillo north-northeast into southwest
   Kansas. Additionally, increasing coverage and deepening of cumulus
   was evident across northeast New Mexico. Given moderate-to-strong
   instability in place, a couple of thunderstorms or thunderstorm
   clusters may evolve out of these areas. Deep-layer shear is
   generally at or below 25 knots, which will tend to limit overall
   updraft organization. However, the degree of instability, downdraft
   CAPE values approaching 1500 J/kg, and temperature-dewpoint spreads
   approaching 30F will support a primary severe threat of strong/gusty
   thunderstorm outflows, although hail cannot be ruled out. The short
   space/time window of the threat, along with the expected limited
   coverage, should preclude the need for a watch.

   ..Marsh/Hart.. 09/22/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35880342 37090275 37990175 38070073 37740049 36090119
               35050195 35060274 35220345 35880342 

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