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Mesoscale Discussion 1666
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0152 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...RED RIVER VALLEY OF NWRN MN/ERN ND

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 121852Z - 122045Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...AT LEAST ISOLATED OCCURRENCES OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL SHOULD
   DEVELOP ONCE CONVECTION INTENSIFIES ALONG THE RED RIVER VALLEY IN
   THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DEGREE OF COVERAGE SUFFICIENT FOR
   A WW ISSUANCE IS UNCERTAIN.

   DISCUSSION...INITIALLY ELEVATED SMALL TSTM CLUSTER ALONG THE RED
   RIVER IN MANITOBA APPEARS TO BE TRANSITIONING TO SURFACE-BASED
   CHARACTER AS TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED TO AROUND 90 DEG F /NEAR
   CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SAMPLED BY 12Z ABR AND INL RAOBS/. FURTHER
   HEATING OF A PLUME OF 66-72 DEG F SURFACE DEW POINTS FROM CNTRL SD
   TO THE RED RIVER VALLEY WILL YIELD CONTINUE DOWNSTREAM
   DESTABILIZATION. THIS MAY SUPPORT INTENSIFICATION OF A STORM OR TWO
   NEAR THE RED RIVER VALLEY WITHIN PREDOMINANTLY MODERATE MID-LEVEL
   NWLYS. BUT GIVEN RELATIVELY WEAK FORCING...THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY
   COULD STRUGGLE TO INCREASE UNTIL AFTER 22Z ONCE FLANKING DEVELOPMENT
   OCCURS TO THE WSW ALONG AN EWD-MOVING SURFACE TROUGH ANALYZED OVER
   CNTRL/SWRN ND AS OF 18Z. RELATIVELY HIGH-BASED NATURE OF CONVECTION
   AMIDST A STEEP LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT SUGGEST THAT ISOLATED SEVERE
   WIND/HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN HAZARDS.

   ..GRAMS/MEAD.. 08/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...

   LAT...LON   48609833 48959792 48989622 48829530 48109466 47449456
               46809470 46339500 46129599 46399710 47349805 48279843
               48609833 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2015
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