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Mesoscale Discussion 1666
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1666
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0605 PM CDT TUE SEP 02 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF MIDDLE AND ERN TN

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 022305Z - 030000Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...A FEW STRONG TO LOCALIZED SEVERE WIND GUSTS /40-60 MPH/
   MAY ACCOMPANY THE MORE INTENSE CORES AND THIS COULD LEAD TO POCKETS
   OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE FOR THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

   DISCUSSION...RADAR MOSAIC AT 2300Z SHOWS A WSW-ENE INTERCONNECTED
   BAND OF STORMS FROM 55 MI SSW CKV...BIFURCATING THE GREATER
   NASHVILLE AREA...AND IN AREAS FARTHER E NEAR THE CUMBERLAND GAP. 
   MOST OF THE STORMS ARE EXPELLING CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW TO THE SSE AND
   THIS IS TENDING TO UNDERCUT EXISTING CONVECTION AND PROMOTE
   ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE LEADING EDGE OF THE GUST FRONT.  THE
   CURRENT ORIENTATION OF CONVECTION AND STORM INTENSITY APPEARS TO BE
   PARTIALLY SYMPTOMATIC OF A FEW FACTORS...1) WEAK EFFECTIVE SHEAR AOB
   20-25 KT AND 2) MEAN FLOW LARGELY PARALLEL TO THE GUST FRONT
   ORIENTATION.  NONETHELESS...TEMPS IN THE 80S TO THE E AND S OF THE
   ONGOING ACTIVITY WILL ONLY SLOWLY FALL THIS EVENING AS PW AROUND
   1.75 INCHES MAINTAINS AT LEAST SOME THREAT FOR LOOSELY ORGANIZED
   CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED STRONG WET MICROBURSTS.  THE
   ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER OF THE OUTFLOW AND DIURNAL STABILIZATION SHOULD
   LEAD TO STORMS WEAKENING BELOW LOCALLY SEVERE LIMITS TOWARDS 03/01Z.

   ..SMITH/EDWARDS.. 09/02/2014


   ATTN...WFO...MRX...JKL...OHX...MEG...

   LAT...LON   35858810 36168710 36138573 36618406 36518340 35968372
               35638477 35488670 35578757 35858810 

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Page last modified: September 02, 2014
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