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Mesoscale Discussion 1667
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1667
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0407 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...SOUTH/SOUTHWEST TEXAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122107Z - 122200Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR STRONGER
   STORMS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. A WW WILL LIKELY NOT BE NEEDED FOR
   THIS ACTIVITY.

   DISCUSSION...STRONG HEATING/INCREASING INSTABILITY HAS LED TO THE
   DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE DISCUSSION AREA OVER
   THE PAST HOUR.  THESE STORMS ARE FORMING IN AN ENVIRONMENT
   CHARACTERIZED BY 500-1000 J/KG MLCAPE AND ONLY MODEST NELY DEEP
   SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 20 KNOTS.  30-KNOT FLOW AT 4KM AGL INDICATED
   ON THE WSR-88D PROFILER AT EWX COUPLED WITH A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER /30-35 F DEWPOINT DEPRESSIONS/ SUGGESTS STORMS IN THIS
   ENVIRONMENT MAY PRODUCE ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.  THIS THREAT
   SHOULD PERSIST THROUGH SUNSET AND WEAKEN SHORTLY
   THEREAFTER...ALTHOUGH ANY POTENTIAL ORGANIZATION INTO A SMALL
   SWWD-MOVING COMPLEX MAY EXTEND THE ISOLATED THREAT BEYOND DARK.

   ..COOK/MEAD.. 08/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...MAF...

   LAT...LON   31460141 31400222 30900279 30360292 29950252 29860206
               29790142 29570108 29000053 28540035 28319989 28219925
               28549842 29169784 29669770 30419849 31230016 31460141 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2015
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