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Mesoscale Discussion 1668
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1206 AM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL KANSAS

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 030506Z - 030630Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...20 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...THE EVOLUTION OF A SUBSTANTIVE ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
   THREAT STILL SEEMS LOW.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST SOME INCREASE IN SEVERE
   WEATHER POTENTIAL IS POSSIBLE THROUGH 06-09Z...AND TRENDS WILL
   CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AN INCREASING SEVERE
   RISK THAT COULD REQUIRE A WATCH.

   DISCUSSION...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID
   TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION HAS SUPPORTED A GRADUAL INCREASE IN
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS...EAST OF GREAT
   BEND THROUGH AREAS NORTH OF WICHITA.  INTENSIFICATION APPEARS TO
   HAVE BEEN SLOWED BY INHIBITION ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTWARD
   ADVECTION OF INCREASINGLY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR ACROSS THE
   PLAINS.  BUT MORE SUBSTANTIVE RECENT INTENSIFICATION NEAR HUTCHISON
   MAY BE IN RESPONSE TO THE STRENGTHENING AND NORTHWARD PROGRESSION OF
   A SOUTHERLY 850 MB SPEED MAXIMUM ACROSS THE SOUTHERN INTO CENTRAL
   PLAINS.  AS A WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSE CONTINUES MIGRATING EAST OF
   THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...AROUND THE NORTHERN
   PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGE...SOME FURTHER INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE
   DEVELOPMENT AND ORGANIZATION DOES NOT SEEM OUT OF THE QUESTION
   OVERNIGHT.  LATEST WDSS-II MESH HAS SUGGESTED THE PRESENCE OF SEVERE
   HAIL IN STRONGEST STORMS.  FURTHER UPSCALE CONVECTIVE GROWTH COULD
   EVENTUALLY YIELD THE RISK FOR ONE OR TWO DOWNBURSTS WITH LOCALLY
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS.

   ..KERR/EDWARDS.. 09/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...TOP...ICT...GID...

   LAT...LON   38879899 39429823 38659595 38149562 37699650 37939780
               38249840 38879899 

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Page last modified: September 03, 2014
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