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Mesoscale Discussion 1668
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1668
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0446 PM CDT WED AUG 12 2015

   AREAS AFFECTED...ERN MT...SWRN ND...NWRN SD AND NERN WY

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY 

   VALID 122146Z - 122245Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...5 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ISOLATED DOWNBURST WINDS MAY OCCUR OVER THE NRN HIGH
   PLAINS OF ERN MT...SWRN ND...NWRN SD AND NERN WY THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING. COVERAGE OF ANY SUCH EVENTS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO
   SPARSE FOR A WW.

   DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGH
   PLAINS NEXT FEW HOURS SUPPORTED BY DEEP BOUNDARY-LAYER MIXING AND
   MID-LEVEL ASCENT ACCOMPANYING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CRESTING UPPER
   RIDGE. THE MORE NUMEROUS STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FROM ERN MT
   INTO NERN WY AND NWRN SD NEXT FEW HOURS WHERE INFLUENCE OF MID-LEVEL
   ASCENT WILL BE GREATER. ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN MORE ISOLATED ALONG
   CONVERGENT BOUNDARY OVER SWRN ND. LARGE TEMPERATURE-DEWPOINT SPREADS
   WITH SFC TEMPERATURES AROUND 100 F ARE PROMOTING HIGH BASES ROOTED
   BETWEEN 10000 AND 15000 FT. INSTABILITY IS MARGINAL...BUT
   DEEPLY-MIXED INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL SUPPORT A FEW INSTANCES OF
   DOWNBURST WINDS.

   ..DIAL/EDWARDS.. 08/12/2015


   ATTN...WFO...BIS...UNR...BYZ...GGW...

   LAT...LON   44410375 44820531 46450577 47960620 47780405 46890160
               45700265 44410375 

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Page last modified: August 12, 2015
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