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Mesoscale Discussion 1669
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   MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1669
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1219 PM CDT WED SEP 03 2014

   AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL/SRN MN...FAR NERN SD...NWRN WI

   CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE 

   VALID 031719Z - 031945Z

   PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

   SUMMARY...ONGOING ELEVATED TSTMS ACROSS CNTRL MN ARE LIKELY TO
   PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 2-3 HRS...POSING A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
   SVR HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS. WHILE A WW IS NOT CURRENTLY
   ANTICIPATED IN THE NEAR-TERM...A MORE SUBSTANTIAL SVR THREAT IS
   FORECAST TO MATERIALIZE BY LATE AFTERNOON...AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE
   WW ISSUANCE.

   DISCUSSION...PERSISTENT LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN
   ELEVATED CONVECTION ALONG THE LLJ NOSE ACROSS CNTRL PORTIONS OF MN
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. DESPITE BEING POSITIONED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF
   AN EML PLUME CENTERED OVER THE NRN PLAINS...TSTMS HAVE SHOWN
   OCCASIONAL ORGANIZED STRUCTURES /GIVEN 30-40 KT OF CLOUD-LAYER
   SHEAR/ AND POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF LARGE HAIL...WITH
   BRIEF UPWARD PULSES IN WDSS-2 MESH LOOPS NOTED. CURRENT TRENDS
   SUGGEST ELEVATED TSTMS AND AN ASSOCIATED HAIL THREAT WILL PERSIST AT
   LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE HRS...WITH ADDITIONAL TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   POTENTIALLY FURTHER ENCOURAGED BY A WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS CNTRL
   SD AS OF 1700Z. 

   MEANWHILE...POOL OF RICHER LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WITH LOW-70S F
   DEWPOINTS IS NOW ENTERING SWRN MN...AND IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
   ADVECTING NWD THIS AFTERNOON IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SYNOPTIC WARM
   FRONT. POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING SHOULD EVENTUALLY GIVE WAY TO
   SFC-BASED TSTMS...PERHAPS IN THE 21-23Z TIME PERIOD. AS THIS
   OCCURS...AN INCREASING THREAT FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL...AND
   A FEW TORNADOES IS EXPECTED...WHICH WILL LIKELY REQUIRE WW ISSUANCE
   LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..ROGERS/HART.. 09/03/2014


   ATTN...WFO...DLH...MPX...FGF...FSD...ABR...

   LAT...LON   46069475 45879229 45189164 44729219 44439374 44409605
               44819685 45379684 45719611 45849565 46069475 

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Page last modified: September 03, 2014
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